The US Treasury will announce a front-loaded short-term bill issuance strategy (increasing T-bill share of total issuance) at its next quarterly refunding announcement within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 25% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-13.

Bayesian US Treasury Supply Crisis equilibrium: 'US chooses Front-load short-term bills; markets chooses Demand higher term premium' (mixed, 55% confidence, narrow 38% Fearon-style stability), consistent with ongoing supply-demand imbalance in long-duration debt.

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 13in 14d
Made: Sep 13

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

North Korea will conduct a new confirmed missile launch (short-range, medium-range, or ICBM) within 14 days.

geopolitical70%

Israel will conduct a new confirmed airstrike or military operation in Lebanon or Syria within 7 days, coinciding with the Yom Kippur War anniversary / Erev Yom Kippur convergence window (Sept 19-21).

geopolitical74%HIT

A new confirmed attack on commercial shipping in the Red Sea (Houthi-linked) will occur within 30 days, coinciding with the October 7 anniversary convergence window (Rosh Chodesh Cheshvan, Oct 7).

geopolitical69%

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The US Treasury will announce a front-loaded short-term bill issuance strategy (increasing T-bill share of total issuance) at its next quarterly refunding announcement within 30 days.

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