The United States will announce new export control restrictions targeting semiconductor equipment or advanced chip sales to China within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 27% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-12.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian analysis: narrow 25% bargaining range, 53% escalation probability, US dominant strategy 'Economic deterrence,' coalition stability only 30% with critical fracture risk — consistent with continued/expanded US tech restrictions as the primary non-kinetic deterrence lever.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 12in 13d
Made: Sep 12

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's central bank (PBOC) will announce a new targeted stimulus measure for the property sector within 30 days.

geopolitical27%

China's PLA will conduct a new large-scale military exercise or show-of-force operation encircling Taiwan within 21 days.

geopolitical70%

North Korea will conduct a new confirmed missile launch (short-range, medium-range, or ICBM) within 14 days.

geopolitical70%

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The International Atomic Energy Agency or a wire-tier source will report a new confirmed increase in Iran's uranium enrichment capacity or stockpile within 30 days.

geopolitical61%

The United States will announce new export control restrictions targeting semiconductor equipment or advanced chip sales to China within 30 days.

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