China's central bank (PBOC) will announce a new targeted stimulus measure for the property sector within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 27% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-12.

Bayesian China Property/Stimulus Dilemma equilibrium: 'China chooses Targeted property bailout' (mixed, 70% confidence), reinforced by risk-off EM equity pressure (FXI/EEM already confirmed lower) creating policy incentive for intervention.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 12in 13d
Made: Sep 12

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will announce new export control restrictions targeting semiconductor equipment or advanced chip sales to China within 30 days.

geopolitical27%

China's PLA will conduct a new large-scale military exercise or show-of-force operation encircling Taiwan within 21 days.

geopolitical70%

North Korea will conduct a new confirmed missile launch (short-range, medium-range, or ICBM) within 14 days.

geopolitical70%

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China's central bank (PBOC) will announce a new targeted stimulus measure for the property sector within 30 days.

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