China's PLA will conduct a large-scale naval or air exercise near Taiwan involving 20 or more aircraft/vessels in a single day during the September 10-30 UN General Assembly window.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 67% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (gray zone escalation vs economic deterrence, p=100%, fragile 30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) combined with the Erev Rosh Hashana + UN General Assembly convergence signal (intensity 5/5, defense/diplomacy sectors flagged).

Probability: 67%
Timeframe: 24 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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China will announce a new export control, sanction, or blacklist action targeting a named US company within 30 days.

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China's PLA will conduct a large-scale naval or air exercise near Taiwan involving 20 or more aircraft/vessels in a single day during the September 10-30 UN General Assembly window.

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