The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after its September 2026 meeting, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 50% by our lower assessment.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 12% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-24.

Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot equilibrium favors 'hawkish hold + guidance' (bearish, 55% confidence, 0 stable equilibria for a hike scenario) and knowledge bank confirms the Fed's prior July decision was a hawkish HOLD with dissents favoring a hike rather than an actual hike; base rate for policy_action/geopolitical claims is 20%.

Probability: 12%
Timeframe: 10 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

OPEC+ will announce a pause in production increases at its next ministerial-level meeting within 30 days.

geopolitical30%

North Korea will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile launch or confirmed military provocation within 30 days.

geopolitical79%

China's PLA will conduct a large-scale naval or air exercise near Taiwan involving 20 or more aircraft/vessels in a single day during the September 10-30 UN General Assembly window.

geopolitical67%

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The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after its September 2026 meeting, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 50% by our lower assessment.

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