North Korea will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile launch or confirmed military provocation within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 79% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-06.

DPRK Provocation Cycle Nash equilibrium ('ICBM launch; sanctions escalation', mixed, 70% confidence) combined with the Erev Rosh Hashana/UNGA convergence window (intensity 5/5) and the historical pattern of DPRK provocations timed to US-allied drill and diplomatic calendar events.

Probability: 79%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 6in 7d
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's PLA will conduct a large-scale naval or air exercise near Taiwan involving 20 or more aircraft/vessels in a single day during the September 10-30 UN General Assembly window.

geopolitical67%

OPEC+ will announce a pause in production increases at its next ministerial-level meeting within 30 days.

geopolitical30%

The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after its September 2026 meeting, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 50% by our lower assessment.

geopolitical12%EXPIRED

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North Korea will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile launch or confirmed military provocation within 30 days.

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