OPEC+ will announce a pause in production increases at its next ministerial-level meeting within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 30% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-06.

Bayesian OPEC+ Production Decision shows a narrow 38% bargaining range with fragile stability around 'Saudi cuts production, US releases SPR'; prior Reuters wire reporting (confirmed in knowledge bank) already flagged OPEC+ 'likely to pause hikes after September' following the completed September output increase.

Probability: 30%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 6in 7d
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

North Korea will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile launch or confirmed military provocation within 30 days.

geopolitical79%

China's PLA will conduct a large-scale naval or air exercise near Taiwan involving 20 or more aircraft/vessels in a single day during the September 10-30 UN General Assembly window.

geopolitical67%

The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after its September 2026 meeting, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 50% by our lower assessment.

geopolitical12%EXPIRED

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OPEC+ will announce a pause in production increases at its next ministerial-level meeting within 30 days.

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