MISSBrier 0.308

Web search within evidence window (2026-03-19 to 2026-04-18) found no major defense procurement contracts or military cooperation agreements. Searched for 'defense contracts military procurement agreements Taiwan March 2026 April 2026' and 'defense contract military cooperation procurement agreement March April 2026' - both returned no relevant announcements. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: at least 3, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG wrongCOUNT

Defense sector will announce at least 3 major procurement contracts or military cooperation agreements within 30 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability (53%) drives deterrence spending

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 55% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-18. Brier score 0.308.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Taiwan Strait Crisis has 53% escalation probability with narrow 25% bargaining range (fragile). Base rate for defense cooperation announcements is 25% per month, elevated to 75% given structural instability and calculating actor types maintaining gray zone pressure. Calibration favors 30-day timeframe (Brier 0.212).

Probability: 55%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 18164d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

How forecasts are made and scored