PARTIALBrier 0.007

Right direction, wrong timing: HG moved -5.54% from 32.67 to 30.86 (predicted down). Direction correct but deadline missed by 7+ days. Target of 3.8 not reached in time.

Resolved May 11, 2026

Market

SHORT correctHG

Copper futures will close below $3.80 per pound on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as China gray zone escalation in Taiwan Strait (53% escalation probability) disrupts semiconductor demand expectations and industrial metals positioning

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-26 at 9% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-05-11. Brier score 0.007.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Crisis Bayesian equilibrium showing China gray zone escalation with 53% escalation probability, fragile stability (30% coalition strength), narrow Fearon bargaining range (25%), and copper's sensitivity to Chinese industrial demand expectations during geopolitical stress

Probability: 9%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: May 3149d ago
Made: Apr 26

Price Target$3.8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The copper-to-aluminum price ratio will decline below 2.8 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as China's infrastructure stimulus expectations favor aluminum-intensive construction over copper-heavy electrical grid expansion

market60%MISS

Industrial metals futures will experience coordinated selling with LME copper closing below $9,800 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability (53%) creates semiconductor supply chain demand destruction fears

market18%MISS

Copper (HG) futures will close above $4.50 per pound on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as China's infrastructure stimulus expectations build ahead of the NPC session and global supply chains prepare for Hormuz alternatives

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Copper futures will close below $3.80 per pound on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as China gray zone escalation in Taiwan Strait (53% escalation probability) disrupts semiconductor demand expectations and industrial metals positioning

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