MISSBrier 0.518

Copper futures (HG=F) price history March 9-April 8: Lowest close was $5.34 on March 20, well above $4.00 target. All daily closes ranged from $5.34 to $5.90, never approaching the $4.00 threshold. Actual minimum: $5.34, Required: below $4.00, $5.34 > $4.00 therefore threshold NOT met. Zero days below $4.00, required at least 2 days.

Resolved Apr 12, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongHG

Copper futures (HG) will close below $4.00/lb on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation disrupts semiconductor manufacturing demand expectations

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-12. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait game theory scenario (mixed outcome, 70% confidence) combined with semiconductor supply chain disruption signals from knowledge bank

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 8174d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$4

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Copper futures (HG) will close below $4.00/lb on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation disrupts semiconductor manufacturing demand expectations

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