HITBrier 0.336

Early-confirmed: HG hit target above 4.5 on 2026-03-09, 2026-03-10. Current price: 28.89 (started at 28.19).

Resolved Mar 11, 2026

Market

LONG correctHG

Copper (HG) futures will close above $4.50 per pound on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as China's infrastructure stimulus expectations build ahead of the NPC session and global supply chains prepare for Hormuz alternatives

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 42% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-11. Brier score 0.336.

Derived from: China PLA economic measure probability adjusted to 65% for NPC session trigger, plus Red Sea shipping disruption scenario creating alternative supply chain demand

Probability: 42%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 8174d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$4.5

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Copper futures (HG) will close below $4.00/lb on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation disrupts semiconductor manufacturing demand expectations

market72%MISS

Copper futures (HG) will close above $4.25 per pound on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as multiple OPEC+ scenarios create industrial hedge demand and the Iran Assessment Window drives infrastructure stockpiling

market44%HIT

Industrial metals futures will experience coordinated selling with LME copper closing below $9,800 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability (53%) creates semiconductor supply chain demand destruction fears

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Copper (HG) futures will close above $4.50 per pound on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as China's infrastructure stimulus expectations build ahead of the NPC session and global supply chains prepare for Hormuz alternatives

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