Industrial metals futures will experience coordinated selling with LME copper closing below $9,800 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability (53%) creates semiconductor supply chain demand destruction fears
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-23 at 18% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-06. Brier score 0.033.
Derived from: Bayesian game theory shows Taiwan Strait crisis at 53% escalation probability with only 25% Fearon bargaining range (narrow/fragile). China's dominant calculating type (30%) pursuing gray zone escalation creates semiconductor supply disruption fears. Industrial metals reference class shows 71% hit rate.
- Probability
- 18%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Apr 6176d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.