MISSBrier 0.033

Copper futures (HG=F) data shows prices in $/lb range 5.34-5.90, which converts to approximately $11,770-$13,010 per metric ton (×2204.6 lbs/ton). All trading days from March 23-April 6 showed copper well above $9,800/ton target. No days below the threshold. Required: 3 days below $9,800, Actual: 0 days below $9,800, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met. Direction incorrect as prices remained elevated.

Resolved Apr 6, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongHG

Industrial metals futures will experience coordinated selling with LME copper closing below $9,800 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability (53%) creates semiconductor supply chain demand destruction fears

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-23 at 18% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-06. Brier score 0.033.

Derived from: Bayesian game theory shows Taiwan Strait crisis at 53% escalation probability with only 25% Fearon bargaining range (narrow/fragile). China's dominant calculating type (30%) pursuing gray zone escalation creates semiconductor supply disruption fears. Industrial metals reference class shows 71% hit rate.

Probability: 18%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 6176d ago
Made: Mar 23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The copper-to-aluminum price ratio will decline below 2.8 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as China's infrastructure stimulus expectations favor aluminum-intensive construction over copper-heavy electrical grid expansion

market60%MISS

Copper (HG) futures will close above $4.50 per pound on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as China's infrastructure stimulus expectations build ahead of the NPC session and global supply chains prepare for Hormuz alternatives

market42%HIT

Copper futures (HG) will close below $4.00/lb on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation disrupts semiconductor manufacturing demand expectations

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Industrial metals futures will experience coordinated selling with LME copper closing below $9,800 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability (53%) creates semiconductor supply chain demand destruction fears

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