MISSBrier 0.360

Calculated copper-to-aluminum ratios for evidence window 2026-03-24 to 2026-04-23. Converting units: Copper in USD/lb, Aluminum in USD/tonne (÷2204.62 for USD/lb). Sample calculations: 2026-03-24: Cu $5.4225/Al $1.423 = 3.81, 2026-03-25: Cu $5.529/Al $1.422 = 3.89, 2026-04-23: Cu $6.076/Al $1.641 = 3.70. All ratios remained above 3.5 throughout the period. Actual minimum: 3.70, Required: <2.8, 3.70 > 2.8 therefore threshold NOT met. Direction also incorrect as ratios increased rather than declined.

Resolved Apr 30, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongHG

The copper-to-aluminum price ratio will decline below 2.8 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as China's infrastructure stimulus expectations favor aluminum-intensive construction over copper-heavy electrical grid expansion

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-24 at 60% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-30. Brier score 0.360.

Derived from: China Property/Stimulus game theory shows 'Targeted property bailout' as most likely outcome (mixed, 70% confidence) with 1 Nash equilibrium indicating stability. This favors construction materials over electrical infrastructure. 30-day timeframe has best Brier score (0.212) in historical performance. Cross-metal ratio avoids single-commodity volatility.

Probability: 60%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 23159d ago
Made: Mar 24

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Industrial metals futures will experience coordinated selling with LME copper closing below $9,800 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability (53%) creates semiconductor supply chain demand destruction fears

market18%MISS

Copper (HG) futures will close above $4.50 per pound on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as China's infrastructure stimulus expectations build ahead of the NPC session and global supply chains prepare for Hormuz alternatives

market42%HIT

Copper futures (HG) will close below $4.00/lb on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation disrupts semiconductor manufacturing demand expectations

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The copper-to-aluminum price ratio will decline below 2.8 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as China's infrastructure stimulus expectations favor aluminum-intensive construction over copper-heavy electrical grid expansion

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