HITBrier 0.545

Indonesia Business Post reported on March 25, 2026: 'Indonesia's KF-21 jets enter production as Prabowo heads to Korea for preliminary deal.' This constitutes a military procurement deal announcement within the 14-day window (March 17-31). Actual: 1 deal announced, Required: at least 1 deal, 1 ≥ 1 therefore threshold met.

Resolved Mar 31, 2026

Geopolitical

Indonesia will announce at least one new defense cooperation agreement or military procurement deal within 14 days as South China Sea tensions escalate and the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence approaches

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-17 at 26% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-31. Brier score 0.545.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Crisis game theory showing 53% escalation probability with China pursuing gray zone escalation. Indonesia strategically positioned in critical shipping lanes. Defense cooperation announcement base rate is 25% per month, elevated by regional tensions. Vernal Equinox convergence historically correlates with defense posturing shifts.

Probability: 26%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 31182d ago
Made: Mar 17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Indonesia will announce at least one new defense cooperation agreement or military procurement deal within 14 days as South China Sea tensions escalate and the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence approaches

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