MISSBrier 0.003

Web search for Malaysia strategic petroleum reserve expansion found extensive coverage of regional energy security concerns due to Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, including articles specifically about Asia's energy security strategies and ASEAN energy policies. However, no evidence found of Malaysia specifically announcing strategic petroleum reserve expansion or new energy security measures during the prediction window. Articles discussed general regional energy security impacts but no Malaysia-specific policy announcements. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: at least 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 16, 2026

Geopolitical

Malaysia will announce at least one new strategic petroleum reserve expansion or energy security measure within 30 days as Strait of Malacca shipping concerns intensify following Middle East supply disruptions

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-17 at 5% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-16. Brier score 0.003.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Crisis game theory showing Iran pursuing diplomatic brinkmanship with 67% escalation probability. Malaysia controls critical Malacca chokepoint and would face immediate pressure if Hormuz disrupted. Energy policy announcement base rate is 30% per month for G7, likely elevated for strategic chokepoint nations during wartime regime. Live intelligence shows supply chain disruption concerns.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 16166d ago
Made: Mar 17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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Malaysia will announce at least one new strategic petroleum reserve expansion or energy security measure within 30 days as Strait of Malacca shipping concerns intensify following Middle East supply disruptions

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