MISSBrier 0.003

Searched for Vietnam FDI incentive announcements during March 11-25, 2026. Only found 2 results within the evidence window, both about India's FDI policies (March 11 and March 13), not Vietnam announcements. No evidence found of Vietnam announcing any foreign direct investment incentives or manufacturing partnerships during the prediction window. Required: At least 1 announcement. Actual: 0 announcements found. 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Geopolitical

Vietnam will announce at least one new foreign direct investment incentive or manufacturing partnership within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation drives supply chain diversification away from China

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 5% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.003.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Crisis Bayesian equilibrium shows 53% escalation probability with Gray zone escalation as most likely outcome. Vietnam positioned as key China+1 beneficiary. Base rate for policy announcements ~25% per month, elevated by supply chain pressure. Compound probability: P(gray_zone_confirmed) * P(vietnam_response|escalation) = 0.70 * 0.85 = 0.60, adjusted up for current tensions

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 25188d ago
Made: Mar 11

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Thailand will announce at least one new regional security cooperation agreement or ASEAN defense initiative within 30 days as Strait of Malacca chokepoint concerns intensify amid Hormuz diplomatic brinkmanship

geopolitical7%MISS

Indonesia will announce at least one new bilateral defense or maritime security agreement within 30 days as Malacca Strait strategic importance increases amid Taiwan gray zone escalation and regional coalition building

geopolitical5%HIT

Indonesia will announce at least one new defense cooperation agreement or military procurement contract within 30 days as Strait of Malacca strategic importance increases amid Taiwan gray zone escalation

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Vietnam will announce at least one new foreign direct investment incentive or manufacturing partnership within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation drives supply chain diversification away from China

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