Oil prices and OPEC+

Latest first

1. Tuesday, 29 September 202615 updates

   • 10:30News

     NewsSaudi Arabia Restarts Red Sea Crude Oil Loadings

     OilPrice

     Saudi Arabia has restarted crude oil loadings at the Yanbu port on the Red Sea after the East-West pipeline resumed partial service, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing vessel-tracking data and trade

   • 09:59Odds

     OddsPolymarket: "Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?" at 19%

     Polymarket

     First tracked price for this market.

   • 09:30News

     NewsIndia Unlikely to Ditch Russian Oil Despite Trump's 100% Tariff Threat

     OilPrice

     India cannot and likely will not replace all the Russian crude oil it is importing despite the threat of 100% tariffs on its products in the United States, according to analysts. Earlier this month,

   • 09:17News

     NewsArgentina's Milei threatens legal action over Falklands oil project

     Al Jazeera

   • 08:32News

     NewsArgentina's Milei threatens UK with international legal action over Falkland Islands oil project

     Deutsche Welle

     A major offshore oil project is opening a new front in the Falklands sovereignty dispute, with Buenos Aires threatening legal action and sanctions against companies involved.

   • 08:18News

     NewsArgentina threatens UK with legal action over Falklands oil exploration

     Sky News

     Argentina's president has threatened the UK with legal action over an oil project off the coast of the Falklands.

   • 08:00News

     NewsArgentina Threatens UK with Court Action Over Falklands Oil Drilling

     OilPrice

     Argentina will sue the UK unless it suspends an oil drilling project off the coast of the Falkland Islands, the BBC has reported, citing an X post by Argentine president Javier Milei. "I instructed th

   • 07:26News

     NewsOil Rises Despite Saudi Pipeline Repair as U.S.-Iran Talks Stall - WSJ

     WSJ

   • 05:19News

     NewsOil Extends Rally Despite Higher Hormuz Volume Reports

     OilPrice

     Crude oil prices extended a climb that began on Monday, despite reports that oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz have improved considerably since the start of September. At the time of writing, Brent c

   • 04:02News

     NewsU.S., Iran hold separate mediator talks as Mideast oil exports hit war-time high

     CNBC

   • 02:08News

     NewsElevated yields, higher oil prices test global stocks as rate fears persist - Reuters

     reuters.com

   • 01:53News

     NewsOil prices flat as Middle East supply concerns persist

     CNBC

   • 01:00News

     NewsMiddle East Oil Exports Rebound as Iran's Chokehold on Hormuz Breaks Down - WSJ

     wsj.com

   • 00:33News

     NewsOil prices rise for second session on continued Middle East supply concerns - reuters.com

     Reuters

   • 00:15Resolved

     ResolvedIran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a confirmed attack or seizure incident targeting a non-Israeli, non-US Gulf-state oil export facility or tanker within 14 days.

     Resolved as expired (forecast at 70%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

2. Monday, 28 September 202630 updates

   • 23:05News

     NewsKey IRGC intelligence figure in Iran's oil sales identified: Who is Mostafa Ahadi? - iranintl.com

     iranintl.com

   • 22:21News

     NewsArgentina's President Milei threatens international legal action over Falklands oilfield

     Washington Times

     Argentine President Javier Milei said Monday that his government would seek international arbitration against the U.K. over an oil project off the disputed, U.K.-controlled Falkland Islands, escalatin

   • 22:00News

3. Sunday, 27 September 20268 updates

   • 23:58News

     NewsOil prices off highs after reports Saudi pipeline ramping back up

     CNBC

   • 23:58News

     NewsBrent crude tops $108 as Trump rejects Iranian proposal to reopen Hormuz Strait - CNBC

     CNBC

   • 23:00News

     News

4. Saturday, 26 September 20261 update

   • 06:18Resolved

     ResolvedXLE will close below $62.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days even as crude oil benchmarks (USO/Brent) remain elevated, reflecting refining margin compression relative to crude strength.

     Resolved as a miss (forecast at 28%). XLE reference at creation (2026-09-06) was $64.06. Within the evidence window (2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20), daily closes were: 9/8 64.77, 9/9 65.31, 9/10 64.93, 9/11 65.14, 9/14 64.53, 9/15 65.93, 9/16 64.03, 9/17 64.48, 9/18 64.31 (last trading day before deadline). Minimum close in window = 64.03 on

5. Friday, 25 September 20263 updates

   • 12:18Resolved

     ResolvedEnergy sector ETF XLE will outperform SPY by at least 4% on a cumulative basis within 14 days as sustained Hormuz-driven oil premium diverges from broader wartime risk-off equity weakness.

     Resolved as a miss (forecast at 26%). Baseline (Sep4 close, matching creation reference SPY=770.19): XLE=64.06, SPY=770.19. End of window (last trading day Sep18, 2026): XLE close=64.31, SPY close=761.69. XLE return = (64.31-64.06)/64.06*100 = 0.39%. SPY return = (761.69-770.19)/770.19*100 = -1.10%. Outperformance = 0.39 - (-1.10) = 1.4

   • 12:15Resolved

     ResolvedOil services ETF OIH will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $445.43, 6% from $420.22 at creation)

     Resolved as a miss (forecast at 39%). Data-resolved: OIH moved from 420.22 to 394.20 (-6.19%) during 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-25. Target: above 445.43. Target not reached. High was 425.62.

   • 06:33

6. Thursday, 24 September 20261 update

   • 06:33Forecast

     ForecastOPEC+ will announce a formal production cut decision at its next ministerial-level statement within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 45% probability, resolves by 2026-10-24.

7. Wednesday, 23 September 20262 updates

   • 15:05Resolved

     ResolvedOil & gas exploration ETF XOP will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $204.65, 5% from $194.90 at creation)

     Resolved as a miss (forecast at 21%). Data-resolved: XOP moved from 194.90 to 183.16 (-6.02%) during 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-23. Target: above 204.65. Target not reached. High was 200.89.

   • 02:33Forecast

     ForecastWTI crude oil will trade at or above $135 per barrel at some point during September 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will WTI Crude Oil hit (HIGH) $135 in September?' as YES.

     NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-09-30.

8. Tuesday, 22 September 20264 updates

   • 21:05Resolved

     ResolvedXOP (oil & gas exploration ETF) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $185.70, 5% from $195.47 at creation)

     Resolved as a hit (forecast at 24%). Early-confirmed: XOP hit target below 185.7 on 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22. Current price: 181.61 (started at 195.47).

   • 04:33Forecast

     ForecastUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close at least 3.5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation risk (67% Bayesian probability) keeps a geopolitical risk premium in crude (target above $153.35, 3.5% from $148.16 at creation)

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-22.

   • 03:33Forecast

9. Monday, 21 September 20263 updates

   • 08:33Forecast

     ForecastDAL (Delta Air Lines) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as elevated Hormuz-linked oil price risk and risk-off travel demand pressure fuel-cost-sensitive airline equities (target below $75.64, 5% from $79.62 at creation)

     NEXUS forecast: 68% probability, resolves by 2026-10-05.

   • 08:33Forecast

     ForecastSLB (Schlumberger) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as Hormuz-linked oil price risk premium disproportionately benefits Middle East-exposed energy service names (target above $54.19, 6% from $51.12 at creation)

     NEXUS forecast: 80% probability, resolves by 2026-10-05.

   • 06:00Resolved

10. Sunday, 20 September 20261 update

    • 01:33Forecast

      ForecastOPEC+ will announce a coordinated production cut at its next ministerial-level decision within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 51% probability, resolves by 2026-10-20.

11. Saturday, 19 September 20261 update

    • 01:33Forecast

      ForecastGLD will close above $412 on at least one trading day within 30 days as safe-haven demand builds around the October 7 and 1973 Oil Embargo anniversary risk window.

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-19.

12. Friday, 18 September 20263 updates

    • 09:34Forecast

      ForecastExxonMobil (XOM) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as Hormuz escalation risk (67% probability) and a fragile OPEC+ cut equilibrium support elevated crude prices (target above $171.43, 5% from $163.27 at creation)

      NEXUS forecast: 78% probability, resolves by 2026-10-02.

    • 03:33Forecast

      ForecastWTI crude oil will trade at or below $65 per barrel at some point in September 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?' as YES

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-10-01.

    • 01:33Forecast

13. Wednesday, 16 September 20261 update

    • 08:33Forecast

      ForecastSaudi Arabia and OPEC+ will formally announce a production cut of at least 500,000 bpd at their scheduled December ministerial meeting

      NEXUS forecast: 51% probability, resolves by 2026-12-15.

14. Tuesday, 15 September 20261 update

    • 03:32Forecast

      ForecastOPEC+ will announce a coordinated production cut at its next ministerial meeting within 30 days

      NEXUS forecast: 51% probability, resolves by 2026-10-15.

15. Monday, 14 September 20263 updates

    • 15:05Resolved

      ResolvedUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $159.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 46%). Early-confirmed: USO hit target above 159.5 on 2026-09-14. Current price: 158.67 (started at 154.90).

    • 10:33Forecast

      ForecastOPEC+ will maintain its current production quotas unchanged, announcing no new production cut, at its next ministerial meeting within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.

    • 03:33Forecast

      Forecast

16. Sunday, 13 September 20263 updates

    • 09:33Forecast

      ForecastThe US Treasury or OFAC will announce a new sanctions designation specifically targeting Iranian oil export networks or shadow-fleet shipping entities within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 27% probability, resolves by 2026-09-27.

    • 05:33Forecast

      ForecastThe US Treasury or OFAC will announce a new sanctions designation targeting Russian oil trade intermediaries or shadow-fleet operators within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 28% probability, resolves by 2026-09-27.

    • 04:34Forecast

      Forecast

17. Saturday, 12 September 20267 updates

    • 18:33Forecast

      ForecastOPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (rather than a cut) at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days, continuing the pattern of the confirmed August 2026 output-hike decision.

      NEXUS forecast: 28% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.

    • 15:33Forecast

      ForecastUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $159.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 46% probability, resolves by 2026-09-26.

    • 15:05Resolved

      Resolved

18. Friday, 11 September 20262 updates

    • 09:33Forecast

      ForecastOil services ETF OIH will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $445.43, 6% from $420.22 at creation)

      NEXUS forecast: 39% probability, resolves by 2026-09-25.

    • 02:33Forecast

      ForecastXOP (oil & gas exploration ETF) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $185.70, 5% from $195.47 at creation)

      NEXUS forecast: 24% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.

19. Thursday, 10 September 20262 updates

    • 15:33Forecast

      ForecastSaudi Arabia will publicly announce a unilateral OPEC+ production cut within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 18% probability, resolves by 2026-10-10.

    • 14:33Forecast

      ForecastThe United States will impose a new sanction or trade restriction targeting Iran's oil exports or shipping network within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.

20. Wednesday, 9 September 20265 updates

    • 19:33Forecast

      ForecastOil & gas exploration ETF XOP will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $204.65, 5% from $194.90 at creation)

      NEXUS forecast: 21% probability, resolves by 2026-09-23.

    • 16:33Forecast

      ForecastOPEC+ will maintain its current production quotas without a formal cut or further increase at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 24% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.

    • 16:05Resolved

      Resolved

21. Tuesday, 8 September 20264 updates

    • 21:33Forecast

      ForecastSaudi Arabia will announce a unilateral OPEC+ production cut of at least 500,000 bpd within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 17% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.

    • 07:33Forecast

      ForecastIran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct a confirmed attack on a Saudi Arabian or UAE oil production or export facility within 14 days

      NEXUS forecast: 57% probability, resolves by 2026-09-22.

    • 04:33Forecast

      Forecast

22. Monday, 7 September 20267 updates

    • 22:34Forecast

      ForecastIran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a confirmed attack or seizure incident targeting a non-Israeli, non-US Gulf-state oil export facility or tanker within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.

    • 16:33Forecast

      ForecastOPEC+ will convene an emergency, non-scheduled ministerial meeting within 30 days in direct response to Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions.

      NEXUS forecast: 46% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.

    • 15:34Forecast

      Forecast

23. Sunday, 6 September 20266 updates

    • 16:33Forecast

      ForecastOPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (not a cut) for its next monthly allocation within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 28% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.

    • 13:48Forecast

      ForecastXLE will close below $62.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days even as crude oil benchmarks (USO/Brent) remain elevated, reflecting refining margin compression relative to crude strength.

      NEXUS forecast: 28% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.

    • 13:48Forecast

      Forecast

24. Saturday, 5 September 20261 update

    • 00:03Resolved

      ResolvedUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability (67%) and prior confirmed harassment/mine/seizure incidents sustain the oil war-premium beyond the current $134.67 level.

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 7%). Data-resolved: USO moved from 134.67 to 141.96 (5.41%) during 2026-08-22 to 2026-09-05. Target: above 145. Target not reached. High was 143.46.

25. Sunday, 30 August 20262 updates

    • 15:02Forecast

      ForecastWTI crude futures (CL) will close above $95.00 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed pattern of Hormuz mine deployments, vessel seizures, and tanker harassment (3+ distinct incidents confirmed in the prior 14-day window) sustains upward pressure on crude from the current ~$90.75 level.

      NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-09-13.

    • 15:00Resolved

      ResolvedICE Brent crude oil futures (BZ) will close above $90 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruption (tanker seizures, mine incident) and 67% escalation probability sustain elevated crude pricing despite the Bayesian 'sufficient bargaining range' framing.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 5%). get_market_price tool returned an ETF-proxy price series for 'BZ' (values ~$15-18) which is inconsistent with actual Brent crude pricing and cannot be used per instrument-mismatch rules. However, multiple independent news reports within the evidence window directly report the actual Brent spot/futur

26. Saturday, 29 August 20262 updates

    • 06:03Forecast

      ForecastSaudi Arabia will NOT announce a unilateral or OPEC+-coordinated production cut at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days, maintaining the current output-increase policy despite the fragile OPEC+ Bayesian equilibrium (38% bargaining range, Saudi cuts/US releases SPR scenario).

      NEXUS forecast: 11% probability, resolves by 2026-09-28.

    • 06:01Resolved

      ResolvedThe US government will not announce a formal Strategic Petroleum Reserve release within 30 days, despite the OPEC+ Bayesian equilibrium projecting 'Saudi cuts production, US releases SPR' as the most likely fragile outcome (38% bargaining range).

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 8%). No wire- or official-tier report of a formal US SPR release announcement was found in the window. Instead, Reuters (wire tier, 2026-08-24) reported: "IEA's Birol: not discussing a second release of strategic oil reserves" - a direct, past-tense wire-tier statement contradicting any SPR release havin

27. Saturday, 22 August 20261 update

    • 06:01Forecast

      ForecastUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability (67%) and prior confirmed harassment/mine/seizure incidents sustain the oil war-premium beyond the current $134.67 level.

      NEXUS forecast: 7% probability, resolves by 2026-09-05.

28. Thursday, 20 August 20262 updates

    • 06:00Resolved

      ResolvedOPEC+ will announce a formal coordinated production cut decision at or before its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 13%). Reuters (wire tier, Aug 3 2026): 'OPEC+ agrees September oil hike, completing rollback of voluntary cuts' - OPEC+ approved a 188,000 bpd PRODUCTION INCREASE for September 2026, not a coordinated production cut. Reuters (wire, Jul 28 2026) reported OPEC+ likely to pause hikes after September, but no

    • 00:01Resolved

      ResolvedUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close below $108.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the emerging US-Iran-Oman diplomatic framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (reported NYT wire 2026-08-04) unwinds the war-premium that drove USO from $114.88 (current) to a prior high above $130.

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 16%). Data-resolved: USO moved from 114.88 to 130.91 (13.95%) during 2026-08-06 to 2026-08-20. Target: below 108. Target not reached. Low was 116.19.

29. Sunday, 16 August 20262 updates

    • 15:03Forecast

      ForecastICE Brent crude oil futures (BZ) will close above $90 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruption (tanker seizures, mine incident) and 67% escalation probability sustain elevated crude pricing despite the Bayesian 'sufficient bargaining range' framing.

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-08-30.

    • 06:00Resolved

      ResolvedICE Brent crude oil futures (BZ) will close above $88 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days.

      Resolved as expired (forecast at 5%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

30. Thursday, 6 August 20261 update

    • 06:03Forecast

      ForecastUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close below $108.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the emerging US-Iran-Oman diplomatic framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (reported NYT wire 2026-08-04) unwinds the war-premium that drove USO from $114.88 (current) to a prior high above $130.

      NEXUS forecast: 16% probability, resolves by 2026-08-20.

31. Thursday, 30 July 20261 update

    • 15:02Forecast

      ForecastThe US government will not announce a formal Strategic Petroleum Reserve release within 30 days, despite the OPEC+ Bayesian equilibrium projecting 'Saudi cuts production, US releases SPR' as the most likely fragile outcome (38% bargaining range).

      NEXUS forecast: 8% probability, resolves by 2026-08-29.

32. Wednesday, 29 July 20261 update

    • 15:00Resolved

      ResolvedUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $130.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains fragile (50%, 67% escalation probability) and Iran nuclear zero-bargaining-range failure sustains upward oil price momentum already evidenced by the +5.9% move from $117.79 to $124.76 in the prior 14-day window.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 5%). Early-confirmed: USO hit target above 130 on 2026-07-29. Current price: 130.02 (started at 124.76).

33. Tuesday, 28 July 20262 updates

    • 06:02Forecast

      ForecastUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $130.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains fragile (50%, 67% escalation probability) and Iran nuclear zero-bargaining-range failure sustains upward oil price momentum already evidenced by the +5.9% move from $117.79 to $124.76 in the prior 14-day window.

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-08-11.

    • 00:00Resolved

      ResolvedUSO will close below $112.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains sufficient for agreement (50%) despite 67% escalation probability, continuing the historical pattern of oil failing to spike on Hormuz rhetoric.

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 6%). Data-resolved: USO moved from 117.79 to 124.76 (5.92%) during 2026-07-14 to 2026-07-28. Target: below 112. Target not reached. Low was 117.73.

34. Saturday, 25 July 20261 update

    • 06:01Forecast

      ForecastICE Brent crude oil futures (BZ) will close above $88 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-08-08.

35. Tuesday, 21 July 20261 update

    • 06:01Forecast

      ForecastOPEC+ will announce a formal coordinated production cut decision at or before its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 13% probability, resolves by 2026-08-20.

36. Tuesday, 14 July 20261 update

    • 06:02Forecast

      ForecastUSO will close below $112.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains sufficient for agreement (50%) despite 67% escalation probability, continuing the historical pattern of oil failing to spike on Hormuz rhetoric.

      NEXUS forecast: 6% probability, resolves by 2026-07-28.

37. Thursday, 9 July 20261 update

    • 15:00Resolved

      ResolvedOil services sector (OIH) will outperform energy sector ETF (XLE) by at least 3% within 30 days

      Resolved as expired (forecast at 26%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

38. Sunday, 7 June 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedOPEC will announce additional production cuts of at least 500,000 barrels per day at or before their June 2026 ministerial meeting, as the OPEC+ Production Decision game theory shows Saudi cuts as the most likely outcome with 70% confidence

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 52%). Searched for OPEC June 2026 ministerial meeting production cuts of at least 500,000 barrels per day. Only found one article dated June 2, 2026 titled 'OPEC Meets on Saturday. The Bill Arrives on Monday' but no specific content about production cut announcements or quantities. No evidence found of OP

39. Tuesday, 2 June 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedWTI crude oil futures will close above $160 per barrel on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as confirmed wartime regime supply disruption combines with zero stable equilibria in Strait of Hormuz Crisis to force sustained energy price shock

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 26%). WTI crude oil futures data from 2026-05-19 to 2026-06-02 shows highest closing price was $107.77 on May 19, 2026. Daily closes: May 19: $107.77, May 20: $98.26, May 21: $96.35, May 22: $96.60, May 26: $93.89, May 27: $88.68, May 28: $88.90, May 29: $87.36, Jun 1: $92.16, Jun 2: $91.28. Actual highes

40. Monday, 1 June 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedThe correlation between crude oil futures (CL=F) and Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) will break above 0.70 within 7 days as wartime regime forces synchronized energy import pricing pressures

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). Cannot calculate exact correlation from price data alone, but directional analysis shows oil fell sharply (from ~$109 on May 21 to ~$89 by May 28) while CNY/USD was relatively stable (0.147 to 0.148 range). Oil declined ~18% while CNY/USD increased ~0.4% - opposite directions indicate negative or lo

41. Wednesday, 27 May 20261 update

    • 06:05Forecast

      ForecastOil services sector (OIH) will outperform energy sector ETF (XLE) by at least 3% within 30 days

      NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-06-26.

42. Thursday, 21 May 20261 update

    • 06:05Forecast

      ForecastThe correlation between crude oil futures (CL=F) and Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) will break above 0.70 within 7 days as wartime regime forces synchronized energy import pricing pressures

      NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-05-28.

43. Tuesday, 19 May 20261 update

    • 06:04Forecast

      ForecastWTI crude oil futures will close above $160 per barrel on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as confirmed wartime regime supply disruption combines with zero stable equilibria in Strait of Hormuz Crisis to force sustained energy price shock

      NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-06-02.

44. Sunday, 17 May 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one OPEC+ member country will announce emergency production capacity review or supply contingency activation within 14 days

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). Searched for OPEC+ emergency production capacity reviews and supply contingency activations within evidence window 2026-05-03 to 2026-05-17. Found only routine production decisions including 'Seven OPEC+ countries to increase oil production in June' (May 3) and 'OPEC+ hikes oil production quotas' (M

45. Thursday, 14 May 20262 updates

    • 06:05Resolved

      ResolvedThe correlation between energy sector ETF (XLE) and crude oil futures (CL=F) will break below 0.60 within 14 days as refining margin compression and wartime fuel allocation policies decouple upstream/downstream dynamics

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 25%). Analyzed daily price movements for XLE and CL=F from 2026-04-29 to 2026-05-13 (14-day window). XLE prices: 59.03 (Apr 29), 59.65 (Apr 30), 58.85 (May 1), 59.39 (May 4), 59.45 (May 5), 57.00 (May 6), 55.95 (May 7), 55.70 (May 8), 57.17 (May 11), 57.57 (May 12), 57.63 (May 13). CL=F prices: 106.88 (Ap

    • 06:05Resolved

      ResolvedThe correlation between crude oil futures and European banking ETF will break above 0.75 within 7 days

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). Analyzed daily price movements for CL=F and EUFN from 2026-05-04 to 2026-05-11 (7-day prediction window). CL=F prices: 106.42 (May 4), 102.27 (May 5), 95.08 (May 6), 94.81 (May 7), 95.42 (May 8), 98.07 (May 11). EUFN prices: 36.71 (May 4), 37.11 (May 5), 38.48 (May 6), 37.67 (May 7), 38.05 (May 8),

46. Sunday, 10 May 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one OPEC+ member country will announce emergency production capacity assessment or force majeure review within 14 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations escalate beyond current OPEC+ Production Decision fragile equilibrium

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 20%). Search found Iran strikes UAE oil facilities on May 4, 2026, but no evidence of any OPEC+ member announcing emergency production capacity assessment or force majeure review within the April 26 - May 10 evidence window. The Iran strike represents escalation but did not trigger the specific OPEC+ admi

47. Monday, 4 May 20261 update

    • 06:06Forecast

      ForecastThe correlation between crude oil futures and European banking ETF will break above 0.75 within 7 days

      NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-05-11.

48. Sunday, 3 May 20261 update

    • 06:06Forecast

      ForecastAt least one OPEC+ member country will announce emergency production capacity review or supply contingency activation within 14 days

      NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-05-17.

49. Friday, 1 May 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedBrent crude oil will close above $115 per barrel on at least 4 trading days within 30 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations and Hormuz chokepoint threats create sustained supply disruption premium despite SPR releases

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 10%). Brent crude (BZ=F) price data shows closes during evidence window April 1-May 1: Apr 1: $101.16, Apr 2: $109.03, Apr 6: $109.77, Apr 7: $109.27, Apr 8: $94.75, Apr 9: $95.92, Apr 10: $95.20, Apr 13: $99.36, Apr 14: $94.79, Apr 15: $94.93, Apr 16: $99.39, Apr 17: $90.38, Apr 20: $95.48, Apr 21: $98.4

50. Wednesday, 29 April 20261 update

    • 22:29Forecast

      ForecastThe correlation between energy sector ETF (XLE) and crude oil futures (CL=F) will break below 0.60 within 14 days as refining margin compression and wartime fuel allocation policies decouple upstream/downstream dynamics

      NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-05-13.

51. Sunday, 26 April 20261 update

    • 06:06Forecast

      ForecastAt least one OPEC+ member country will announce emergency production capacity assessment or force majeure review within 14 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations escalate beyond current OPEC+ Production Decision fragile equilibrium

      NEXUS forecast: 20% probability, resolves by 2026-05-10.

52. Friday, 24 April 20261 update

    • 06:03Resolved

      ResolvedRhodium futures will trade above $4,800 per ounce on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as confirmed oil field attacks and Iran nuclear commitment problems create supply chain disruption fears for automotive catalysts

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 12%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.

53. Sunday, 19 April 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedAt least 2 OPEC+ member countries will announce emergency production meetings or unilateral output adjustments within 30 days as multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium scenarios create coordination breakdown

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 48%). OPEC+ activity March 20-April 19: Found evidence of coordinated OPEC+ output adjustment (206,000 bpd increase from May) announced around April 5, 2026. This appears to be a collective decision rather than unilateral country actions or emergency meetings. No evidence found of at least 2 individual me

54. Saturday, 18 April 20261 update

    • 06:06Resolved

      ResolvedBrent crude oil futures will close above $95 per barrel on at least 5 trading days within 30 days as Iranian attacks on regional oil infrastructure and collapsed Iran-Israel bargaining range (0% per Bayesian analysis) drive supply disruption premiums

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 10%). Brent crude futures (BZ=F) price data shows closes above $95 per barrel within evidence window (2026-03-17 to 2026-04-16): 3/18 (107.38), 3/19 (108.65), 3/20 (112.19), 3/23 (99.94), 3/24 (104.49), 3/25 (102.22), 3/26 (108.01), 3/27 (112.57), 3/30 (112.78), 3/31 (118.35), 4/1 (101.16), 4/2 (109.03),