Live tracker·Global·Updated
Crude oil prices, OPEC+ production decisions and the geopolitical supply risks that move them.
NewsSaudi Arabia Restarts Red Sea Crude Oil Loadings
OilPrice
Saudi Arabia has restarted crude oil loadings at the Yanbu port on the Red Sea after the East-West pipeline resumed partial service, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing vessel-tracking data and trade
OddsPolymarket: "Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?" at 19%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsIndia Unlikely to Ditch Russian Oil Despite Trump's 100% Tariff Threat
OilPrice
India cannot and likely will not replace all the Russian crude oil it is importing despite the threat of 100% tariffs on its products in the United States, according to analysts. Earlier this month,
NewsArgentina's Milei threatens UK with international legal action over Falkland Islands oil project
Deutsche Welle
A major offshore oil project is opening a new front in the Falklands sovereignty dispute, with Buenos Aires threatening legal action and sanctions against companies involved.
NewsArgentina threatens UK with legal action over Falklands oil exploration
Sky News
Argentina's president has threatened the UK with legal action over an oil project off the coast of the Falklands.
NewsArgentina Threatens UK with Court Action Over Falklands Oil Drilling
OilPrice
Argentina will sue the UK unless it suspends an oil drilling project off the coast of the Falkland Islands, the BBC has reported, citing an X post by Argentine president Javier Milei. "I instructed th
NewsOil Extends Rally Despite Higher Hormuz Volume Reports
OilPrice
Crude oil prices extended a climb that began on Monday, despite reports that oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz have improved considerably since the start of September. At the time of writing, Brent c
Resolved as expired (forecast at 70%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
NewsArgentina's President Milei threatens international legal action over Falklands oilfield
Washington Times
Argentine President Javier Milei said Monday that his government would seek international arbitration against the U.K. over an oil project off the disputed, U.K.-controlled Falkland Islands, escalatin
News
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 28%). XLE reference at creation (2026-09-06) was $64.06. Within the evidence window (2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20), daily closes were: 9/8 64.77, 9/9 65.31, 9/10 64.93, 9/11 65.14, 9/14 64.53, 9/15 65.93, 9/16 64.03, 9/17 64.48, 9/18 64.31 (last trading day before deadline). Minimum close in window = 64.03 on
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 26%). Baseline (Sep4 close, matching creation reference SPY=770.19): XLE=64.06, SPY=770.19. End of window (last trading day Sep18, 2026): XLE close=64.31, SPY close=761.69. XLE return = (64.31-64.06)/64.06*100 = 0.39%. SPY return = (761.69-770.19)/770.19*100 = -1.10%. Outperformance = 0.39 - (-1.10) = 1.4
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 39%). Data-resolved: OIH moved from 420.22 to 394.20 (-6.19%) during 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-25. Target: above 445.43. Target not reached. High was 425.62.
NEXUS forecast: 45% probability, resolves by 2026-10-24.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 21%). Data-resolved: XOP moved from 194.90 to 183.16 (-6.02%) during 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-23. Target: above 204.65. Target not reached. High was 200.89.
NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-09-30.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 24%). Early-confirmed: XOP hit target below 185.7 on 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22. Current price: 181.61 (started at 195.47).
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-22.
NEXUS forecast: 68% probability, resolves by 2026-10-05.
NEXUS forecast: 80% probability, resolves by 2026-10-05.
NEXUS forecast: 51% probability, resolves by 2026-10-20.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-19.
NEXUS forecast: 78% probability, resolves by 2026-10-02.
NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-10-01.
NEXUS forecast: 51% probability, resolves by 2026-12-15.
ForecastOPEC+ will announce a coordinated production cut at its next ministerial meeting within 30 days
NEXUS forecast: 51% probability, resolves by 2026-10-15.
ResolvedUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $159.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 46%). Early-confirmed: USO hit target above 159.5 on 2026-09-14. Current price: 158.67 (started at 154.90).
NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.
Forecast
NEXUS forecast: 27% probability, resolves by 2026-09-27.
NEXUS forecast: 28% probability, resolves by 2026-09-27.
Forecast
NEXUS forecast: 28% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.
ForecastUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $159.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast: 46% probability, resolves by 2026-09-26.
Resolved
NEXUS forecast: 39% probability, resolves by 2026-09-25.
NEXUS forecast: 24% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.
ForecastSaudi Arabia will publicly announce a unilateral OPEC+ production cut within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast: 18% probability, resolves by 2026-10-10.
NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.
NEXUS forecast: 21% probability, resolves by 2026-09-23.
NEXUS forecast: 24% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.
Resolved
ForecastSaudi Arabia will announce a unilateral OPEC+ production cut of at least 500,000 bpd within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast: 17% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.
NEXUS forecast: 57% probability, resolves by 2026-09-22.
Forecast
NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.
NEXUS forecast: 46% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
Forecast
NEXUS forecast: 28% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.
NEXUS forecast: 28% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.
Forecast
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 7%). Data-resolved: USO moved from 134.67 to 141.96 (5.41%) during 2026-08-22 to 2026-09-05. Target: above 145. Target not reached. High was 143.46.
NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-09-13.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 5%). get_market_price tool returned an ETF-proxy price series for 'BZ' (values ~$15-18) which is inconsistent with actual Brent crude pricing and cannot be used per instrument-mismatch rules. However, multiple independent news reports within the evidence window directly report the actual Brent spot/futur
NEXUS forecast: 11% probability, resolves by 2026-09-28.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 8%). No wire- or official-tier report of a formal US SPR release announcement was found in the window. Instead, Reuters (wire tier, 2026-08-24) reported: "IEA's Birol: not discussing a second release of strategic oil reserves" - a direct, past-tense wire-tier statement contradicting any SPR release havin
NEXUS forecast: 7% probability, resolves by 2026-09-05.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 13%). Reuters (wire tier, Aug 3 2026): 'OPEC+ agrees September oil hike, completing rollback of voluntary cuts' - OPEC+ approved a 188,000 bpd PRODUCTION INCREASE for September 2026, not a coordinated production cut. Reuters (wire, Jul 28 2026) reported OPEC+ likely to pause hikes after September, but no
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 16%). Data-resolved: USO moved from 114.88 to 130.91 (13.95%) during 2026-08-06 to 2026-08-20. Target: below 108. Target not reached. Low was 116.19.
NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-08-30.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 5%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
NEXUS forecast: 16% probability, resolves by 2026-08-20.
NEXUS forecast: 8% probability, resolves by 2026-08-29.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 5%). Early-confirmed: USO hit target above 130 on 2026-07-29. Current price: 130.02 (started at 124.76).
NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-08-11.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 6%). Data-resolved: USO moved from 117.79 to 124.76 (5.92%) during 2026-07-14 to 2026-07-28. Target: below 112. Target not reached. Low was 117.73.
NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-08-08.
NEXUS forecast: 13% probability, resolves by 2026-08-20.
NEXUS forecast: 6% probability, resolves by 2026-07-28.
ResolvedOil services sector (OIH) will outperform energy sector ETF (XLE) by at least 3% within 30 days
Resolved as expired (forecast at 26%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 52%). Searched for OPEC June 2026 ministerial meeting production cuts of at least 500,000 barrels per day. Only found one article dated June 2, 2026 titled 'OPEC Meets on Saturday. The Bill Arrives on Monday' but no specific content about production cut announcements or quantities. No evidence found of OP
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 26%). WTI crude oil futures data from 2026-05-19 to 2026-06-02 shows highest closing price was $107.77 on May 19, 2026. Daily closes: May 19: $107.77, May 20: $98.26, May 21: $96.35, May 22: $96.60, May 26: $93.89, May 27: $88.68, May 28: $88.90, May 29: $87.36, Jun 1: $92.16, Jun 2: $91.28. Actual highes
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). Cannot calculate exact correlation from price data alone, but directional analysis shows oil fell sharply (from ~$109 on May 21 to ~$89 by May 28) while CNY/USD was relatively stable (0.147 to 0.148 range). Oil declined ~18% while CNY/USD increased ~0.4% - opposite directions indicate negative or lo
ForecastOil services sector (OIH) will outperform energy sector ETF (XLE) by at least 3% within 30 days
NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-06-26.
NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-05-28.
NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-06-02.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). Searched for OPEC+ emergency production capacity reviews and supply contingency activations within evidence window 2026-05-03 to 2026-05-17. Found only routine production decisions including 'Seven OPEC+ countries to increase oil production in June' (May 3) and 'OPEC+ hikes oil production quotas' (M
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 25%). Analyzed daily price movements for XLE and CL=F from 2026-04-29 to 2026-05-13 (14-day window). XLE prices: 59.03 (Apr 29), 59.65 (Apr 30), 58.85 (May 1), 59.39 (May 4), 59.45 (May 5), 57.00 (May 6), 55.95 (May 7), 55.70 (May 8), 57.17 (May 11), 57.57 (May 12), 57.63 (May 13). CL=F prices: 106.88 (Ap
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). Analyzed daily price movements for CL=F and EUFN from 2026-05-04 to 2026-05-11 (7-day prediction window). CL=F prices: 106.42 (May 4), 102.27 (May 5), 95.08 (May 6), 94.81 (May 7), 95.42 (May 8), 98.07 (May 11). EUFN prices: 36.71 (May 4), 37.11 (May 5), 38.48 (May 6), 37.67 (May 7), 38.05 (May 8),
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 20%). Search found Iran strikes UAE oil facilities on May 4, 2026, but no evidence of any OPEC+ member announcing emergency production capacity assessment or force majeure review within the April 26 - May 10 evidence window. The Iran strike represents escalation but did not trigger the specific OPEC+ admi
NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-05-11.
NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-05-17.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 10%). Brent crude (BZ=F) price data shows closes during evidence window April 1-May 1: Apr 1: $101.16, Apr 2: $109.03, Apr 6: $109.77, Apr 7: $109.27, Apr 8: $94.75, Apr 9: $95.92, Apr 10: $95.20, Apr 13: $99.36, Apr 14: $94.79, Apr 15: $94.93, Apr 16: $99.39, Apr 17: $90.38, Apr 20: $95.48, Apr 21: $98.4
NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-05-13.
NEXUS forecast: 20% probability, resolves by 2026-05-10.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 12%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.
Resolved as a partial (forecast at 48%). OPEC+ activity March 20-April 19: Found evidence of coordinated OPEC+ output adjustment (206,000 bpd increase from May) announced around April 5, 2026. This appears to be a collective decision rather than unilateral country actions or emergency meetings. No evidence found of at least 2 individual me
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 10%). Brent crude futures (BZ=F) price data shows closes above $95 per barrel within evidence window (2026-03-17 to 2026-04-16): 3/18 (107.38), 3/19 (108.65), 3/20 (112.19), 3/23 (99.94), 3/24 (104.49), 3/25 (102.22), 3/26 (108.01), 3/27 (112.57), 3/30 (112.78), 3/31 (118.35), 4/1 (101.16), 4/2 (109.03),
This tracker updates hourly from NEXUS news monitoring, published forecasts and prediction-market prices. Headlines link to their original publishers. NEXUS forecasts are recorded before their outcome and scored when they resolve. How forecasts are made and scored.
NewsStandard Chartered: Record CTA Long Bets Are Capping Oil's Upside
OilPrice
Oil prices rebounded from their recent slide on fears of U.S.-Iran escalation after attempts at diplomacy yielded mixed results, with speeches by leaders on both sides laced with threats and belligere
NewsSamuel Alito steps aside in a major climate case amid scrutiny over oil stock holdings
The Guardian
Decision from conservative justice comes before court hears case on whether fossil-fuel firms deceived US public Supreme court justice Samuel Alito recused himself on Monday from a major clim
NewsGold falls amid rising oil prices and higher US dollar
Al Jazeera
NewsHow AI Could Upend the Secretive World of Fuel Trading
OilPrice
The fuel trading market is expanding from an established group of specialized desks at oil majors, commodity trading houses, and refiners to AI-assisted trades. AI could either make the sometimes opaq
NewsU.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1982
OilPrice
Crude stocks in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stood at 284.6 million barrels for the week ending September 18, according to the Energy Information Administration, down from 285.0 million the we
NewsCan Fracking Reverse Colombia's Oil and Gas Decline?
OilPrice
Colombia's economically vital petroleum industry is in a death spiral. Oil and natural gas production is falling despite efforts to boost output and grow efficiencies. New President Abelardo de la Esp
NewsTotalEnergies Targets 3% Annual Oil and Gas Growth Through 2030
OilPrice
TotalEnergies expects its oil and gas production to grow by more than 3% every year until 2030 due to start-ups of new low-cost projects currently under development, the French supermajor said in its
Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
NewsMiddle East Oil Exports Rebound to 12.8 Million Bpd
OilPrice
Crude oil exports from the Middle East have risen to 12.8 million barrels daily this month, preliminary data from Kpler cited by Reuters has suggested. The rebound was led by Saudi Arabia, which redir
NewsOil Prices Jump 3% on Rekindled War Fears
OilPrice
Crude oil prices started the week with a jump after President Trump rejected a peace deal proposal tabled by Iran last week at the UN General Assembly. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading
NewsBond sell-off deepens as oil prices rise - Financial Times
Financial Times
NewsStocks slip in Asia as oil and yields climb - Reuters
reuters.com
OilPrice
The Trump Administration is touting the new oil order in Venezuela as a tremendous opportunity for reviving the industry in the world's biggest crude oil resource holder. The U.S.-led restructuring of
NewsBessent predicts Iran's economic collapse 'in the next two weeks'
Washington Times
Iran will soon run out of oil to sell to China and will have nothing left to trade, "probably in the next two weeks," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.
NewsMost of UK's essential food supply grown in drought-risk areas, report warns
The Guardian
Keys crops such as cereals, potatoes, sugar and oils grown in areas with moderate to very high risk The vast majority of the UK's essential foods, including cereals, potatoes, sugar and oil,
NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-10-25.
NEXUS forecast: 47% probability, resolves by 2026-09-29.
NEXUS forecast: 76% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 29%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
NEXUS forecast: 28% probability, resolves by 2026-10-18.
NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.
NEXUS forecast: 24% probability, resolves by 2026-10-13.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 43%). Early-confirmed: XOM hit target above 165.85 on 2026-09-11. Current price: 165.99 (started at 159.47).
NEXUS forecast: 31% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.
NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-09-26.
NEXUS forecast: 19% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.
NEXUS forecast: 33% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 47%). Early-confirmed: BNO hit target above 58.35 on 2026-09-09. Current price: 59.15 (started at 56.11).
NEXUS forecast: 17% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.
NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.
NEXUS forecast: 22% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.
NEXUS forecast: 27% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.
NEXUS forecast: 21% probability, resolves by 2026-12-01.
ForecastOPEC+ will announce a production quota increase at its December 2026 ministerial meeting
NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-12-01.
NEXUS forecast: 28% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
NEXUS forecast: 47% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.
NEXUS forecast: 18% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.
NEXUS forecast: 43% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.
NEXUS forecast: 30% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.
NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.