BNO (Brent oil ETF) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $58.35, 4% from $56.11 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 47% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-09. Brier score 0.284.

Confirmed Hormuz harassment/mine/seizure pattern continuing (multiple wire-tier confirmations through late August), Fearon bargaining range at zero for Iran-nuclear, and prior confirmed Brent >$90 sustained move; wartime direct supply-disruption impact.

Probability

47%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 218d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.