HITBrier 0.284

Early-confirmed: BNO hit target above 58.35 on 2026-09-09. Current price: 59.15 (started at 56.11).

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Market

LONG correctBNO

BNO (Brent oil ETF) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $58.35, 4% from $56.11 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 47% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-09. Brier score 0.284.

Confirmed Hormuz harassment/mine/seizure pattern continuing (multiple wire-tier confirmations through late August), Fearon bargaining range at zero for Iran-nuclear, and prior confirmed Brent >$90 sustained move; wartime direct supply-disruption impact.

Probability: 47%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2125d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$58.35

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

BNO will close at least 2% above its October 4, 2026 reference price on at least one trading day by October 18, 2026 (target above $64.36, 2% from $63.10 at creation)

market64%HIT

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BNO (Brent oil ETF) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $58.35, 4% from $56.11 at creation)

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