Oil services sector (OIH) will outperform energy sector ETF (XLE) by at least 3% within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-27 at 26% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-07-09.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz escalation probability 67% and confirmed wartime regime favor upstream investment over integrated energy companies. Supply disruption premium benefits drilling/services more than production companies facing geopolitical operational risk. Reference class relative_performance/market shows 100% hit rate but n=1, applying conservative confidence.

Probability

26%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Jun 2695d ago

Made

May 27

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.