Brent oil ETF proxy BNO will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 29% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-26.

Confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruption pattern (multiple confirmed harassment/mine/seizure incidents), 67% Bayesian Hormuz escalation probability, and Brent's already-confirmed sustained trade above $90 support continued upside in the direct oil-price proxy.

Probability: 29%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 263d ago
Made: Sep 12

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Starbucks (SBUX) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $93.80, 5% from $98.74 at creation)

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Target Corp (TGT) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $148.04, 5% from $155.83 at creation)

market41%MISS

Brent oil ETF proxy BNO will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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