MISSBrier 0.168

Data-resolved: TGT moved from 155.83 to 157.45 (1.04%) during 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-26. Target: below 148.04. Target not reached. Low was 153.55.

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongTGT

Target Corp (TGT) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $148.04, 5% from $155.83 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 41% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-26. Brier score 0.168.

Risk-off regime (F&G 38, SPY/QQQ near capitulation RSI) combined with a hawkish Fed hold removing the contrarian bounce thesis should extend consumer discretionary weakness; TGT already confirmed a prior 4% drawdown in a preceding window, and the catalyst (Fed hold + wartime demand destruction) remains unresolved.

Probability: 41%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 263d ago
Made: Sep 12

Price Target$148.04

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Target Corp (TGT) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $157.86, 4% from $164.44 at creation)

market43%HIT

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Target Corp (TGT) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $148.04, 5% from $155.83 at creation)

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