Target Corp (TGT) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $157.86, 4% from $164.44 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 43% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-10. Brier score 0.330.

Confirmed Hormuz oil-price war premium (Brent >$90, USO already above $130 confirmed) raises input/freight costs for discretionary retailers; wartime risk-off Fear & Greed 38 backdrop compresses consumer discretionary multiples.

Probability

43%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 218d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.