Starbucks (SBUX) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $93.80, 5% from $98.74 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 43% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.322.

Consumer-discretionary weakness under the confirmed risk-off regime previously drove SBUX below its 4% threshold; this extends the thesis to a longer 30-day window with a larger magnitude reflecting continued wartime demand pressure.

Probability

43%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Oct 12in 13d

Made

Sep 12

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.