Starbucks (SBUX) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target below $100.29, 4% from $104.47 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 28% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-10. Brier score 0.524.

Risk-off regime (F&G 38) and broad equity technical fear extreme; consumer discretionary names carry high beta to the SPY/QQQ oversold-but-fragile setup where no fundamental catalyst supports sustained bounce.

Probability

28%

Timeframe

7 days

Deadline

Sep 1415d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.