HITBrier 0.524

Early-confirmed: SBUX hit target below 100.29 on 2026-09-09, 2026-09-10. Current price: 100.06 (started at 104.47).

Resolved Sep 10, 2026

Market

SHORT correctSBUX

Starbucks (SBUX) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target below $100.29, 4% from $104.47 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 28% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-10. Brier score 0.524.

Risk-off regime (F&G 38) and broad equity technical fear extreme; consumer discretionary names carry high beta to the SPY/QQQ oversold-but-fragile setup where no fundamental catalyst supports sustained bounce.

Probability: 28%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1432d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$100.29

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Starbucks (SBUX) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $93.80, 5% from $98.74 at creation)

market43%HIT

SBUX will close at least 4% below its October 2, 2026 reference price on at least one trading day by November 1, 2026 (target below $91.08, 4% from $94.88 at creation)

market51%HIT

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Starbucks (SBUX) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target below $100.29, 4% from $104.47 at creation)

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