HITBrier 0.325

Early-confirmed: IWM hit target below 285.5 on 2026-09-15. Current price: 285.14 (started at 288.89).

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Market

SHORT correctIWM

IWM will close below $285.50 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 43% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-16. Brier score 0.325.

Confirmed SELL IWM trading action citing bearish trend and elevated ATR (5.74) volatility regime distinct from large-cap indices, indicating small caps are undergoing a more chaotic drawdown from the current $288.89 level.

Probability: 43%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1910d ago
Made: Sep 12

Price Target$285.5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

IWM will close above $298.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market39%MISS

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) will close above $300.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market36%MISS

Small-cap ETF IWM will underperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

market27%MISS

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IWM will close below $285.50 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

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