MISSBrier 0.074

Creation (2026-09-06): SPY=770.19, IWM=296.01. End of window (2026-09-18, last trading day before Sept-20 deadline): SPY close=761.69, IWM close=284.10. SPY return=(761.69-770.19)/770.19=-1.104%. IWM return=(284.10-296.01)/296.01=-4.023%. Relative underperformance = -4.023 - (-1.104) = -2.92%. Required: IWM underperform SPY by at least 3%. Actual 2.92% < 3% required, therefore threshold NOT met (direction correct, magnitude just short).

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Market

SHORT correctIWM

Small-cap ETF IWM will underperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 27% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-26. Brier score 0.074.

Thesis flags IWM's distinct chaotic volatility regime (ATR 5.74, MACD -0.482) versus large-cap's orderly technical extreme, suggesting relative underperformance even if broad indices mean-revert together.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) will close above $300.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market36%MISS

IWM will close above $298.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market39%MISS

IWM will close below $285.50 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market43%HIT

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Small-cap ETF IWM will underperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

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