MISSBrier 0.129

Data-resolved: IWM moved from 296.01 to 288.89 (-2.41%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-14. Target: above 300. Target not reached. High was 296.10.

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Market

LONG wrongIWM

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) will close above $300.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 36% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-14. Brier score 0.129.

Technical mean-reversion counterargument (RSI 35.3 with high ATR volatility) alongside the existing contrarian BUY IWM action at the Bollinger Band low; oversold positioning could produce a short-covering bounce despite the wartime bearish trend.

Probability: 36%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1415d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$300

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Small-cap ETF IWM will underperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

market27%MISS

IWM will close above $298.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market39%MISS

IWM will close below $285.50 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market43%HIT

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IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) will close above $300.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

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