IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) will close below $280.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-22.

Trading action flags SELL IWM on bearish trend with elevated ATR (5.74) indicating a distinct chaotic sell-off in small caps relative to large caps; target sits just inside the 30-day expected-move band (279.27-291.89), reflecting continuation of the more volatile small-cap decline.

Probability

85%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Oct 22in 23d

Made

Sep 22

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.