MISSBrier 0.152

Data-resolved: IWM moved from 294.67 to 285.14 (-3.23%) during 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-16. Target: above 298. Target not reached. High was 294.16.

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Market

LONG wrongIWM

IWM will close above $298.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 39% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-16. Brier score 0.152.

Thesis flags a contrarian BUY IWM entry at the lower Bollinger Band with F&G at 38 (fear zone); technical bounce case distinct from the prior confirmed bearish IWM predictions which used lower-level thresholds.

Probability: 39%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1630d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$298

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) will close above $300.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market36%MISS

Small-cap ETF IWM will underperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

market27%MISS

IWM will close below $285.50 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market43%HIT

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IWM will close above $298.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

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