HITBrier 0.579

Early-confirmed: XOP hit target below 185.7 on 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22. Current price: 181.61 (started at 195.47).

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Market

SHORT correctXOP

XOP (oil & gas exploration ETF) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $185.70, 5% from $195.47 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 24% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-22. Brier score 0.579.

Contrarian cross-asset view: equity risk-off demand-destruction fears (SPY/QQQ capitulation RSI, Fear & Greed 38) could outweigh the Hormuz supply-premium currently supporting energy equities, producing a decoupling of upstream E&P names from crude's war-premium floor within 30 days.

Probability: 24%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 11in 12d
Made: Sep 11

Price Target$185.7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Oil & gas exploration ETF XOP will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $204.65, 5% from $194.90 at creation)

market21%MISS

XOP will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $193.25, 5% from $184.05 at creation)

market61%

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XOP (oil & gas exploration ETF) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $185.70, 5% from $195.47 at creation)

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