MISSBrier 0.044

Data-resolved: XOP moved from 194.90 to 183.16 (-6.02%) during 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-23. Target: above 204.65. Target not reached. High was 200.89.

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Market

LONG wrongXOP

Oil & gas exploration ETF XOP will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $204.65, 5% from $194.90 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 21% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-23. Brier score 0.044.

Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability of 67% with confirmed mine/seizure incidents sustains an oil war-premium that flows directly into E&P equity beta, distinct from the already-covered USO/CL and BZ price-level predictions.

Probability: 21%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 236d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$204.65

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XOP (oil & gas exploration ETF) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $185.70, 5% from $195.47 at creation)

market24%HIT

XOP will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $193.25, 5% from $184.05 at creation)

market61%

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Oil & gas exploration ETF XOP will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $204.65, 5% from $194.90 at creation)

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