Oil services ETF OIH will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $445.43, 6% from $420.22 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 39% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.151.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability of 67% and confirmed prior Brent-above-$90 and USO-above-$145 outcomes sustaining an oil war-premium; oil services equities carry high beta to sustained elevated crude pricing and drilling activity expectations.

Probability

39%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 254d ago

Made

Sep 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.