Live tracker·United States·Updated
Federal Reserve policy decisions, rate expectations and the signals from FOMC members.
NEXUS forecast: 67% probability, resolves by 2026-10-25.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 74%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 5%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-29.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-22.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-22.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-20.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-19.
NEXUS forecast: 74% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
ForecastThe Fed will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 FOMC meeting.
NEXUS forecast: 48% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
NEXUS forecast: 53% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
NEXUS forecast: 52% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
NEXUS forecast: 47% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
NEXUS forecast: 21% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
ForecastThe Federal Reserve will announce no change in interest rates following its September 2026 meeting.
NEXUS forecast: 48% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
Forecast
ForecastThe Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.
NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
NEXUS forecast: 50% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
Forecast
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 23%). AP News (wire tier): 'Fed leaves interest rate unchanged but with 3 dissents as Warsh praises good family fight' (July 29, 2026). NYT (wire tier): 'Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Despite Three Votes for an Increase' (July 30, 2026). Additional confirmation: Virginia Business/other-tier report
NEXUS forecast: 23% probability, resolves by 2026-08-21.
This tracker updates hourly from NEXUS news monitoring, published forecasts and prediction-market prices. Headlines link to their original publishers. NEXUS forecasts are recorded before their outcome and scored when they resolve. How forecasts are made and scored.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 43%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
ResolvedThe Fed will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 FOMC meeting.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 48%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 53%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 52%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 47%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will announce no change in interest rates following its September 2026 meeting.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 48%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 6%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 5%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 50%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 44%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 12%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 16%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
NEXUS forecast: 43% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
NEXUS forecast: 6% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
NEXUS forecast: 44% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
NEXUS forecast: 12% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
NEXUS forecast: 16% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.