Federal Reserve and US interest rates

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1. Monday, 28 September 20261 update

   • 16:54News

     NewsFederal Reserve Staffer Removed Sensitive Files Before Retiring, Report Finds - WSJ

     wsj.com

2. Friday, 25 September 20261 update

   • 11:33Forecast

     ForecastThe Federal Reserve or a senior Fed official will publicly signal 'higher for longer' rate guidance (no cut, explicit hawkish language) at its next scheduled communication within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 67% probability, resolves by 2026-10-25.

3. Thursday, 24 September 202614 updates

   • 06:00Resolved

     ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after the September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.

     Resolved as expired (forecast at 74%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

   • 06:00Resolved

     ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.

     Resolved as expired (forecast at 5%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

   • 06:00Resolved

4. Wednesday, 23 September 20261 update

   • 08:34Forecast

     ForecastThe Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without change following its October 2026 meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?' as YES.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-29.

5. Tuesday, 22 September 20262 updates

   • 10:34Forecast

     ForecastThe Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without cutting at its next scheduled communication within 30 days, consistent with a hawkish-hold stance.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-22.

   • 02:33Forecast

     ForecastThe Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate unchanged at its next scheduled FOMC decision within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-22.

6. Sunday, 20 September 20261 update

   • 06:33Forecast

     ForecastThe Federal Reserve will deliver a hawkish hold (no rate cut, no dovish guidance) at its next FOMC communication within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-20.

7. Saturday, 19 September 20261 update

   • 02:33Forecast

     ForecastThe Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate unchanged at its next FOMC meeting without accompanying dovish forward guidance within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-19.

8. Friday, 11 September 20263 updates

   • 14:32Forecast

     ForecastThe Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after the September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.

     NEXUS forecast: 74% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.

   • 11:34Forecast

     ForecastThe Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.

     NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.

   • 08:33Forecast

9. Wednesday, 9 September 20262 updates

   • 21:33Forecast

     ForecastThe Fed will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 FOMC meeting.

     NEXUS forecast: 48% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.

   • 09:34Forecast

     ForecastThe Federal Reserve will leave its policy interest rate unchanged at the September 2026 FOMC meeting.

     NEXUS forecast: 53% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.

10. Tuesday, 8 September 20262 updates

    • 15:33Forecast

      ForecastThe Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged (no cut or hike) following its September 2026 meeting.

      NEXUS forecast: 52% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.

    • 04:33Forecast

      ForecastThe Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged (no rate change) at its September 2026 meeting, matching the Polymarket 'no change' question resolving 2026-09-16

      NEXUS forecast: 47% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.

11. Monday, 7 September 20263 updates

    • 18:33Forecast

      ForecastThe Federal Reserve will announce a reduction in the federal funds rate at its next scheduled FOMC meeting within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 21% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.

    • 13:33Forecast

      ForecastThe Federal Reserve will announce no change in interest rates following its September 2026 meeting.

      NEXUS forecast: 48% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.

    • 07:33Forecast

      Forecast

12. Sunday, 6 September 20265 updates

    • 13:48Forecast

      ForecastThe Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.

    • 13:47Forecast

      ForecastThe Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged (no cut, no hike) at its September 2026 meeting, consistent with the Bayesian 'hawkish hold + guidance' equilibrium.

      NEXUS forecast: 50% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.

    • 13:29Forecast

      Forecast

13. Friday, 21 August 20261 update

    • 06:00Resolved

      ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will communicate a hawkish hold (no rate cut, guidance emphasizing persistent inflation risk) at its next policy communication within 30 days.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 23%). AP News (wire tier): 'Fed leaves interest rate unchanged but with 3 dissents as Warsh praises good family fight' (July 29, 2026). NYT (wire tier): 'Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Despite Three Votes for an Increase' (July 30, 2026). Additional confirmation: Virginia Business/other-tier report

14. Wednesday, 22 July 20261 update

    • 06:01Forecast

      ForecastThe Federal Reserve will communicate a hawkish hold (no rate cut, guidance emphasizing persistent inflation risk) at its next policy communication within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 23% probability, resolves by 2026-08-21.