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Federal Reserve and US interest rates: live tracker and timeline | NEXUS Intelligence

Live tracker·United States·Updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026, 00:04 UTC

Federal Reserve and US interest rates

Federal Reserve policy decisions, rate expectations and the signals from FOMC members.

Illustrative image

State of play

Recent Fed commentary points to possible further tightening: meeting minutes showed most officials viewed another rate hike by year-end as necessary, and officials including Waller and Hammack have warned that higher rates may be needed to curb inflation. Williams said he currently sees no need for a rate hike in 2027. Separately, Trump has escalated efforts to remove Governor Lisa Cook, prompting a new investigation that her lawyer has denounced.

Written Wednesday, 14 October 2026 from the timeline

Market odds: None matched
Open forecasts: 7
NEXUS record: 1/1hits on this story, misses included

Open NEXUS forecasts

85%The Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate unchanged at its next FOMC meeting without accompanying dovish forward guidance within 30 days.by 2026-10-19

85%

The Federal Reserve will deliver a hawkish hold (no rate cut, no dovish guidance) at its next FOMC communication within 30 days.by 2026-10-20

85%The Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without cutting at its next scheduled communication within 30 days, consistent with a hawkish-hold stance.by 2026-10-22

85%The Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate unchanged at its next scheduled FOMC decision within 30 days.by 2026-10-22

67%The Federal Reserve or a senior Fed official will publicly signal 'higher for longer' rate guidance (no cut, explicit hawkish language) at its next scheduled communication within 30 days.by 2026-10-25

85%The Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without change following its October 2026 meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?' as YES.by 2026-10-29

56%The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged after its October 2026 meeting, under the resolution criteria of Polymarket market 2589812 on October 29, 2026.by 2026-10-29

Latest first

Wednesday, 14 October 20261 update
- 00:04News
  NewsLawyer for Fed Governor Cook Denounces Trump's New Investigation - The New York Times
  The New York Times
Tuesday, 13 October 20264 updates
- 20:07News
  NewsOne More U.S. Interest-Rate Increase May Be Appropriate, Fed's Williams Says - WSJ
  WSJ
- 18:07News
  NewsFed's Williams Interview With Bloomberg News: Full Transcript - Bloomberg.com
  Bloomberg.com
- 18:06News
  NewsFed's Williams Currently Sees No Need for Rate Hike in 2027 - Bloomberg.com
  Bloomberg.com
- 12:04News
  NewsBlackstone's Gray, Fed's Waller See Warning From France's Stress - Bloomberg.com
  Bloomberg.com
Monday, 12 October 20263 updates
- 19:00News
  News$4,000 Gold Could Be Wall Street's Next Big Buying Opportunity
  OilPrice
  Gold is struggling to regain its footing after retreating from September highs above $4,400 an ounce, as a stronger U.S. dollar, surging Treasury yields and expectations of further Federal Reserve tig
- 17:15News
  NewsHigher rates could be needed to avoid 'inflationary mindset' taking hold, says Fed's Hammack
  CNBC
- 17:08News
  News
Sunday, 11 October 20262 updates
- 19:00News
  NewsUS Bond Traders Await CPI, Warsh For Insight on Fed's Rate Path - Bloomberg.com
  Bloomberg.com
- 12:00News
  NewsThe hawk Fed Chair who broke the bond market? - Fortune
  Fortune
Friday, 9 October 202611 updates
- 18:42News
  NewsTrump escalates effort to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook - The Washington Post
  The Washington Post
- 18:24News
  NewsTrump ramps up battle to fire Fed's Cook. Her lawyers say there's no basis.
  MarketWatch
- 18:20News
  News
Thursday, 8 October 20267 updates
- 20:33News
  NewsFederal Reserve Board announces enforcement action against American Express Company to address, among other things, the firm's failure to sufficiently detect and report certain suspicious activity related to money laundering - Federal Reserve (.gov)
  Federal Reserve (.gov)
- 19:36News
  NewsRefinery outages pumping up fuel prices more than cost of crude oil - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
  Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
- 18:45News
Wednesday, 7 October 20268 updates
- 22:18News
  NewsFed officials view another rate hike as 'likely,' meeting minutes show - The Hill
  The Hill
- 19:49News
  NewsMost Fed Officials View Additional Rate Hike By Year-End Necessary, Minutes Show - Yahoo Finance
  Yahoo Finance
- 19:12News
Tuesday, 6 October 20262 updates
- 14:00News
  NewsEnergy Shock Wipes $264 Billion Off the World's Top Mining Stocks
  OilPrice
  The world's 50 most valuable mining companies lost $264 billion in market value in September as oil-driven inflation fears pushed bond yields to their highest since 2008 and the Federal Reserve into i
- 07:05News
  NewsTreasury yields are broadly flat as investors anticipate FOMC minutes
  CNBC
Saturday, 3 October 20261 update
- 02:56News
  NewsBlanche: DOJ won't reopen investigation into Jerome Powell
  Washington Examiner
Friday, 2 October 20265 updates
- 22:32News
  NewsDoJ declines to reopen investigation into former Fed chair Jay Powell
  The Guardian
  Kevin Warsh's predecessor had been investigated over cost overruns related to central bank renovation project The US ⁠justice department is not reopening a criminal investigation into former
- 20:18News
  NewsDOJ says it will not reopen criminal probe into former Fed Chair Powell
  CNBC
- 19:46News
  News
Thursday, 1 October 20262 updates
- 19:33News
  NewsFed's vice chair warns inflation remains high, but Fed needs time to assess rates - Yahoo Finance
  Yahoo Finance
- 15:52News
  NewsFed's Warsh cracks down on HQ renovation, taps GSA to lead - Fox Business
  Fox Business
Wednesday, 30 September 202612 updates
- 23:44News
  NewsTrump renews calls for former Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell's resignation - France 24
  France 24
- 22:21News
  NewsFed's Kashkari says inflation is 'still too high' even after softer-than-expected PCE data
  CNBC
- 20:25News
  News
Tuesday, 29 September 20269 updates
- 20:22News
  News'No need for urgency': New York Fed's Williams squashes notion of an October rate hike - Yahoo Finance
  Yahoo Finance
- 20:06News
  NewsU.S. stocks end down, but off lows, as Fed's Williams says rate hikes can wait
  MarketWatch
- 19:10News
  News
Monday, 28 September 20261 update
- 16:54News
  NewsFederal Reserve Staffer Removed Sensitive Files Before Retiring, Report Finds - WSJ
  wsj.com
Friday, 25 September 20261 update
- 11:33Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve or a senior Fed official will publicly signal 'higher for longer' rate guidance (no cut, explicit hawkish language) at its next scheduled communication within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 67% probability, resolves by 2026-10-25.
Thursday, 24 September 202614 updates
- 06:00Resolved
  ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after the September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.
  Resolved as expired (forecast at 74%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
- 06:00Resolved
  ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.
  Resolved as expired (forecast at 5%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
- 06:00Resolved
Wednesday, 23 September 20261 update
- 08:34Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without change following its October 2026 meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?' as YES.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-29.
Tuesday, 22 September 20262 updates
- 10:34Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without cutting at its next scheduled communication within 30 days, consistent with a hawkish-hold stance.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-22.
- 02:33Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate unchanged at its next scheduled FOMC decision within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-22.
Sunday, 20 September 20261 update
- 06:33Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve will deliver a hawkish hold (no rate cut, no dovish guidance) at its next FOMC communication within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-20.
Saturday, 19 September 20261 update
- 02:33Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate unchanged at its next FOMC meeting without accompanying dovish forward guidance within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-19.
Friday, 11 September 20263 updates
- 14:32Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after the September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.
  NEXUS forecast: 74% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
- 11:34Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.
  NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
- 08:33Forecast
Wednesday, 9 September 20262 updates
- 21:33Forecast
  ForecastThe Fed will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 FOMC meeting.
  NEXUS forecast: 48% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
- 09:34Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve will leave its policy interest rate unchanged at the September 2026 FOMC meeting.
  NEXUS forecast: 53% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
Tuesday, 8 September 20262 updates
- 15:33Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged (no cut or hike) following its September 2026 meeting.
  NEXUS forecast: 52% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
- 04:33Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged (no rate change) at its September 2026 meeting, matching the Polymarket 'no change' question resolving 2026-09-16
  NEXUS forecast: 47% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
Monday, 7 September 20263 updates
- 18:33Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve will announce a reduction in the federal funds rate at its next scheduled FOMC meeting within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 21% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
- 13:33Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve will announce no change in interest rates following its September 2026 meeting.
  NEXUS forecast: 48% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
- 07:33Forecast
  Forecast
Sunday, 6 September 20265 updates
- 13:48Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.
  NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
- 13:47Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged (no cut, no hike) at its September 2026 meeting, consistent with the Bayesian 'hawkish hold + guidance' equilibrium.
  NEXUS forecast: 50% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.
- 13:29Forecast
  Forecast
Friday, 21 August 20261 update
- 06:00Resolved
  ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will communicate a hawkish hold (no rate cut, guidance emphasizing persistent inflation risk) at its next policy communication within 30 days.
  Resolved as a hit (forecast at 23%). AP News (wire tier): 'Fed leaves interest rate unchanged but with 3 dissents as Warsh praises good family fight' (July 29, 2026). NYT (wire tier): 'Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Despite Three Votes for an Increase' (July 30, 2026). Additional confirmation: Virginia Business/other-tier report
Wednesday, 22 July 20261 update
- 06:01Forecast
  ForecastThe Federal Reserve will communicate a hawkish hold (no rate cut, guidance emphasizing persistent inflation risk) at its next policy communication within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 23% probability, resolves by 2026-08-21.

Open NEXUS forecasts

85%The Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate unchanged at its next FOMC meeting without accompanying dovish forward guidance within 30 days.by 2026-10-19
85%The Federal Reserve will deliver a hawkish hold (no rate cut, no dovish guidance) at its next FOMC communication within 30 days.by 2026-10-20
85%The Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without cutting at its next scheduled communication within 30 days, consistent with a hawkish-hold stance.by 2026-10-22
85%The Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate unchanged at its next scheduled FOMC decision within 30 days.by 2026-10-22
67%The Federal Reserve or a senior Fed official will publicly signal 'higher for longer' rate guidance (no cut, explicit hawkish language) at its next scheduled communication within 30 days.by 2026-10-25
85%The Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without change following its October 2026 meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?' as YES.by 2026-10-29
56%The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged after its October 2026 meeting, under the resolution criteria of Polymarket market 2589812 on October 29, 2026.by 2026-10-29

This tracker updates hourly from NEXUS news monitoring, published forecasts and prediction-market prices. Headlines link to their original publishers. NEXUS forecasts are recorded before their outcome and scored when they resolve. How forecasts are made and scored.

Higher rates could be needed to avoid 'inflationary mindset' taking hold, says Fed's Hammack - CNBC

CNBC

Trump created a committee to dig into the Fed's Lisa Cook. What is it and what comes next?

CNBC

16:25News

NewsYoung Americans Are Losing Ground As Older Generations Pull Ahead

Daily Wire

The wealth gap between younger and older American families widened from 2022 to 2025, according to a Federal Reserve report released Friday. The Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances revealed

16:21News

NewsTrump sets up committee to investigate, potentially remove the Fed's Lisa Cook - Politico

Politico

16:01News

NewsTrump launches probe into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook

Al Jazeera

15:39News

NewsTrump establishes committee to investigate Fed governor Lisa Cook

The Guardian

US president renews his efforts to oust Cook despite supreme court ruling that her firing was unconstitutional Donald Trump announced on Friday that he is establishing a committee to investig

15:09News

NewsTrump Announces White House Inquiry Into Fed Governor Cook - The New York Times

The New York Times

15:07News

NewsTrump redoubles effort to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook with new investigative committee

Washington Examiner

15:00News

NewsTrump establishes panel to probe Fed governor Lisa Cook in latest attempt to fire her - NBC News

NBC News

14:29News

NewsTrump appoints committee to investigate statements by the Fed's Lisa Cook

CNBC

NewsU.S. Interest Rates Could Rise Over Next Six to Nine Months, Fed's Musalem Says - WSJ

WSJ

14:11News

News10-year Treasury yield rises as Fed's Waller says more hikes needed, investors await 30-year auction

CNBC

09:19News

NewsTreasury yields rise as Fed's Waller says more hikes needed, investors await 30-year auction - CNBC

CNBC

08:39News

NewsFed's Waller says more rate hikes are needed, but not immediately: markets live

MarketWatch

08:30News

NewsFed's Waller sees additional rate hikes to get inflation down faster - Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance

NewsFed officials feared inflation pressures could spread, minutes show - Axios

Axios

18:45News

NewsFOMC minutes show the Fed ready to hike again in 2026 as AI buildout replaces tariffs as main driver of core prices - Kitco

Kitco

18:10News

NewsFed's minutes show no appetite for a series of interest-rate hikes

MarketWatch

18:07News

NewsFed officials see another hike coming, but no sign as to when, minutes show

CNBC

11:46News

NewsEconomic calendar: minutes from Fed's latest meeting due at 2 p.m. ET

MarketWatch

08:31News

NewsTreasury yields rise ahead of closely-watched 10-year auction and FOMC minutes

CNBC

DOJ says it will not reopen criminal probe into former Fed Chair Powell - CNBC

CNBC

19:00News

NewsCatalyst Watch: Microsoft event, FOMC talk, and the finish line for Paramount-Warner Bros. - Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha

06:52News

NewsUS bonds rally after weaker-than-expected jobs report shows hiring slowdown - business live

Guardian Economics

US economy only added 29,000 jobs in September, which might deter the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates

Trump Says Jerome Powell Should Be 'Forced' To Resign - Forbes

Forbes

17:49News

NewsFederal Reserve watchdog finds no criminal violations for building renovation cost overruns

The Guardian

Trump criticized $2.4bn rehab amid attempts to pressure then Fed chair Jerome Powell into lowering interest rates The Federal Re

17:33News

NewsFederal Reserve watchdog finds no illegal conduct from Jay Powell in building renovations

Washington Examiner

17:00News

NewsFed's Watchdog Finds No Misconduct or Illegal Activity in Costly Renovations - The New York Times

The New York Times

14:57News

NewsA cooler-than-expected reading on Fed's favored inflation measure tamps down on urgency for rate hikes - Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance

12:59News

NewsFed's preferred gauge showed core inflation at 3.0% in August, much lighter than expected

CNBC

12:42News

NewsFed's preferred measure of inflation dips to 3.4 percent in August - The Hill

The Hill

12:39News

NewsFed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Points to Continued Price Pressures - The New York Times

The New York Times

12:31Forecast

ForecastThe Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged after its October 2026 meeting, under the resolution criteria of Polymarket market 2589812 on October 29, 2026.

NEXUS forecast: 56% probability, resolves by 2026-10-29.

10:00News

NewsInside Man: How Chinese spies used lies, love and betrayal to target the Federal Reserve

CNBC

Fed's Williams Hints Next Rate Increase Can Wait - WSJ

WSJ

19:07News

NewsThe Fed's main inflation measure will be released Wednesday. Here's what to expect - CNBC

CNBC

19:07News

NewsThe Fed's main inflation measure will be released Wednesday. Here's what to expect

CNBC

18:20News

NewsU.S. Stocks Pare Losses After Comments From Fed's Williams - WSJ

WSJ

18:01News

NewsFed's Williams sees no urgency for next rate hike - reuters.com

reuters.com

18:00News

NewsFed's Williams Sees One More Interest Rate Hike in Late 2026 - Bloomberg

Bloomberg

02:08News

NewsStocks dip, 2-year US yield falls after Fed's Williams cools rate hike bets - Reuters

reuters.com

ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September 2026 FOMC meeting (no 25bps move in either direction), resolving Polymarket market 2252244 as YES.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 43%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

06:00Resolved

ResolvedThe Fed will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 FOMC meeting.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 48%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

06:00Resolved

ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will leave its policy interest rate unchanged at the September 2026 FOMC meeting.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 53%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

06:00Resolved

ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged (no cut or hike) following its September 2026 meeting.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 52%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

06:00Resolved

ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged (no rate change) at its September 2026 meeting, matching the Polymarket 'no change' question resolving 2026-09-16

Resolved as expired (forecast at 47%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

06:00Resolved

ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will announce no change in interest rates following its September 2026 meeting.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 48%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

06:00Resolved

ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 basis points after the September 2026 meeting.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 6%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

06:00Resolved

ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 5%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

06:00Resolved

ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged (no cut, no hike) at its September 2026 meeting, consistent with the Bayesian 'hawkish hold + guidance' equilibrium.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 50%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

06:00Resolved

ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 44%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

06:00Resolved

ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after its September 2026 meeting, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 50% by our lower assessment.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 12%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

06:00Resolved

ResolvedThe Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September 2026 meeting (no cut, no hike), consistent with our 55% probability assessment versus the Polymarket crowd's evenly split 50%/50% pricing across the hold/hike markets, based on the confirmed pattern of hawkish holds established at the July meeting.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 16%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

ForecastThe Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September 2026 FOMC meeting (no 25bps move in either direction), resolving Polymarket market 2252244 as YES.

NEXUS forecast: 43% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.

The Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 basis points after the September 2026 meeting.

NEXUS forecast: 6% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.

The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.

NEXUS forecast: 44% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.

01:32Forecast

ForecastThe Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after its September 2026 meeting, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 50% by our lower assessment.

NEXUS forecast: 12% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.

00:33Forecast

ForecastThe Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September 2026 meeting (no cut, no hike), consistent with our 55% probability assessment versus the Polymarket crowd's evenly split 50%/50% pricing across the hold/hike markets, based on the confirmed pattern of hawkish holds established at the July meeting.

NEXUS forecast: 16% probability, resolves by 2026-09-16.