The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 44% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-24.

Mirrors Polymarket (YES 51%). The Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle assessment shows zero stable equilibria and the dominant Nash outcome is 'hawkish hold + guidance,' not an actual hike. Crowd pricing appears to overweight a hike scenario versus the model's hold-with-hawkish-guidance base case.

Probability: 44%
Timeframe: 10 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

IEF (7-10yr Treasury ETF) will close below $91.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Fed Rate Cycle Bayesian equilibrium (hawkish hold + guidance, bearish, 55% confidence) and Treasury Supply Crisis dynamics (markets demand higher term premium) pressure bond prices.

market44%HIT

IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF) will close above $93.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market53%MISS

IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF) will close below $89.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market75%

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The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.

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