HITBrier 0.312

Early-confirmed: IEF hit target below 91 on 2026-09-14. Current price: 90.81 (started at 92.25).

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Market

SHORT correctIEF

IEF (7-10yr Treasury ETF) will close below $91.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Fed Rate Cycle Bayesian equilibrium (hawkish hold + guidance, bearish, 55% confidence) and Treasury Supply Crisis dynamics (markets demand higher term premium) pressure bond prices.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 44% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-15. Brier score 0.312.

Derived from: Fed Rate Cycle Pivot Nash equilibrium (hawkish hold, bearish, 55% confidence) plus Polymarket Fed pricing showing 50% probability of a 25bps hike (no cut priced at 0%).

Probability: 44%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$91

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.

geopolitical44%EXPIRED

IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF) will close above $93.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market53%MISS

IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF) will close below $89.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market75%

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IEF (7-10yr Treasury ETF) will close below $91.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Fed Rate Cycle Bayesian equilibrium (hawkish hold + guidance, bearish, 55% confidence) and Treasury Supply Crisis dynamics (markets demand higher term premium) pressure bond prices.

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