MISSBrier 0.277

Data-resolved: IEF moved from 92.25 to 90.80 (-1.57%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: above 93. Target not reached. High was 92.29.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongIEF

IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF) will close above $93.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 53% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.277.

Cross-asset divergence from the TLT long-duration thesis: wartime risk-off flows favor shorter-duration Treasuries (IEF) over long-duration (TLT) given zero stable Fed rate-cycle equilibria and hawkish-hold risk to long bonds. Current price 92.25; target represents a modest ~0.8% move within typical short-duration bond volatility.

Probability: 53%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$93

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.

geopolitical44%EXPIRED

IEF (7-10yr Treasury ETF) will close below $91.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Fed Rate Cycle Bayesian equilibrium (hawkish hold + guidance, bearish, 55% confidence) and Treasury Supply Crisis dynamics (markets demand higher term premium) pressure bond prices.

market44%HIT

IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF) will close below $89.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market75%

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IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF) will close above $93.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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