IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF) will close below $89.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 75% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-05.
Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot equilibrium: 'Hawkish hold + guidance; markets Volatility hedging' (bearish, confidence 55%), zero stable Bayesian equilibria in the Fed scenario, and US Treasury Supply Crisis Nash equilibrium (markets demand higher term premium) both point to continued pressure on intermediate-duration Treasuries.
- Probability
- 75%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Oct 5in 6d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.