IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF) will close below $89.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 75% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-05.

Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot equilibrium: 'Hawkish hold + guidance; markets Volatility hedging' (bearish, confidence 55%), zero stable Bayesian equilibria in the Fed scenario, and US Treasury Supply Crisis Nash equilibrium (markets demand higher term premium) both point to continued pressure on intermediate-duration Treasuries.

Probability: 75%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 5in 6d
Made: Sep 21

Price Target$89

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF) will close above $93.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market53%MISS

The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.

geopolitical44%EXPIRED

IEF (7-10yr Treasury ETF) will close below $91.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Fed Rate Cycle Bayesian equilibrium (hawkish hold + guidance, bearish, 55% confidence) and Treasury Supply Crisis dynamics (markets demand higher term premium) pressure bond prices.

market44%

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IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF) will close below $89.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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