US tariffs and the trade war

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1. Tuesday, 29 September 20262 updates

   • 10:35News

     NewsGlobal trade weathers Iran, Ukraine and Trump's tariffs

     Deutsche Welle

     Over the past six years, COVID, two wars and Donald Trump's tariffs have shaken world trade. With globalization already stalling, is this a temporary shock or the start of a great reversal?

   • 09:30News

     NewsIndia Unlikely to Ditch Russian Oil Despite Trump's 100% Tariff Threat

     OilPrice

     India cannot and likely will not replace all the Russian crude oil it is importing despite the threat of 100% tariffs on its products in the United States, according to analysts. Earlier this month,

2. Monday, 28 September 202610 updates

   • 22:48News

     News'Missed opportunity': US soybean farmers question exclusion from China tariff cuts

     SCMP

     US soybean farmers have described the exclusion of US soybeans from China's import list under the newly announced Board of Trade mechanism as a "missed opportunity", even as Beijing ramped up purchase

   • 21:31News

     NewsU.S., China agree to $60 billion in tariff cuts. But rare earths remain a snag.

     MarketWatch

   • 21:14News

3. Sunday, 27 September 20261 update

   • 10:30News

     NewsAttention, protein-maxxers: Trump's trade war is coming for your whey - CNN

     CNN

4. Thursday, 24 September 20261 update

   • 03:33Forecast

     ForecastThe United States will announce new tariff increases, export controls, or trade restrictions targeting China within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 66% probability, resolves by 2026-10-24.

5. Tuesday, 22 September 20262 updates

   • 09:33Forecast

     ForecastThe US will announce new tariffs targeting Chinese goods within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 57% probability, resolves by 2026-10-22.

   • 03:33Forecast

     ForecastApple (AAPL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as the US-China Trade War Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, bearish) weighs on China-exposed supply chains (target below $322.03, 5% from $338.98 at creation)

     NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.

6. Monday, 21 September 20261 update

   • 03:33Forecast

     ForecastThe United States will announce new tariffs or trade restrictions on Chinese goods (beyond existing semiconductor export controls) within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 49% probability, resolves by 2026-10-21.

7. Sunday, 20 September 20261 update

   • 00:33Forecast

     ForecastThe US will announce new export controls or economic sanctions targeting Chinese semiconductor or technology firms within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 63% probability, resolves by 2026-10-20.

8. Thursday, 17 September 20262 updates

   • 11:33Forecast

     ForecastChina will announce new retaliatory tariffs or export restrictions targeting US goods or technology within 30 days

     NEXUS forecast: 54% probability, resolves by 2026-10-17.

   • 08:33Forecast

     ForecastThe United States will announce new tariffs or export-control measures targeting Chinese technology or semiconductor firms within 30 days

     NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-10-17.

9. Monday, 14 September 20261 update

   • 09:33Forecast

     ForecastThe United States will announce a new tariff increase or broad trade restriction on Chinese imports (a category-wide measure, not limited to semiconductor export controls) within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 24% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.

10. Sunday, 13 September 20262 updates

    • 07:33Forecast

      ForecastChina will announce new export restrictions or retaliatory tariffs targeting US critical minerals, rare earths, or agricultural goods within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-10-13.

    • 06:33Forecast

      ForecastThe United States will announce a new round of tariffs targeting Chinese goods within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 27% probability, resolves by 2026-10-13.

11. Friday, 11 September 20261 update

    • 23:33Forecast

      ForecastThe United States will announce an increase in tariff rates or new trade restrictions on Chinese goods within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 24% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.

12. Thursday, 10 September 20261 update

    • 21:32Forecast

      ForecastChina will announce a new retaliatory tariff, export control, or sanction measure targeting US companies or goods within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 33% probability, resolves by 2026-10-10.

13. Wednesday, 9 September 20261 update

    • 11:33Forecast

      ForecastChina will announce a new economic coercion measure (export control, import restriction, or tariff action) targeting Taiwan or a Taiwan-linked US technology company within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.

14. Sunday, 6 September 20261 update

    • 02:32Forecast

      ForecastThe United States will announce a new export control, sanction, or tariff action targeting Chinese semiconductor or technology firms within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 36% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.

15. Saturday, 15 August 20261 update

    • 06:02Resolved

      ResolvedThe Taiwan Strait crisis will see at least one new US economic deterrence measure (export control, sanction, or tariff action targeting China) publicly announced within 30 days, consistent with the Bayesian equilibrium (China: Gray zone escalation; US: Economic deterrence, p=100%, fragile stability).

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 6%). Wire-tier Reuters (Aug 5, 2026, within window): 'China targets US firms and drone exports after FCC, Xinjiang actions' -- confirms in past tense that the US had already taken FCC-related export/technology restrictions and a Xinjiang forced-labor sanctions/blacklist action against China, which trigge

16. Thursday, 16 July 20261 update

    • 06:03Forecast

      ForecastThe Taiwan Strait crisis will see at least one new US economic deterrence measure (export control, sanction, or tariff action targeting China) publicly announced within 30 days, consistent with the Bayesian equilibrium (China: Gray zone escalation; US: Economic deterrence, p=100%, fragile stability).

      NEXUS forecast: 6% probability, resolves by 2026-08-15.

17. Saturday, 23 May 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedSouth Korea will announce emergency semiconductor export controls or supply chain protection measures within 14 days

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). Web searches within the prediction window (May 9-23, 2026) found no evidence of South Korea announcing emergency semiconductor export controls or supply chain protection measures. Search results were specifically filtered to the evidence window and returned 0 relevant results for South Korean govern

18. Saturday, 9 May 20261 update

    • 06:06Forecast

      ForecastSouth Korea will announce emergency semiconductor export controls or supply chain protection measures within 14 days

      NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-05-23.

19. Friday, 24 April 20261 update

    • 06:05Resolved

      ResolvedBrazil will announce at least one major defense procurement or military cooperation agreement within 30 days as BRICS realignment accelerates amid US-China trade war Fearon bargaining failure

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 60%). Limited search results within evidence window (2026-03-24 to 2026-04-23). Found 2 general articles: 'India and a Changing Global Order' (Mar 25) and 'Prabowo-Putin 5-Hour Meeting' (Apr 14, Indonesia-Russia, not Brazil). No specific evidence of Brazil announcing major defense procurement or military

20. Saturday, 11 April 20261 update

    • 06:07Resolved

      ResolvedSouth Korea will announce emergency semiconductor export controls or technology transfer restrictions within 7 days as Taiwan Strait tensions with 25% narrow Fearon bargaining range force critical supply chain protection measures

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 11%). Search results show Taiwan Strait tensions were present during the evidence window (April 1 - April 8, 2026) with articles mentioning geopolitical tensions and Trump warnings about Taiwan Strait crisis. However, no specific announcements found of South Korea implementing emergency semiconductor expo

21. Monday, 6 April 20261 update

    • 06:06Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one G7 nation will announce new semiconductor export controls or technology transfer restrictions targeting China within 30 days, as gray zone Taiwan Strait escalation triggers economic deterrence responses consistent with the Nash equilibrium outcome

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 60%). Web search found only one relevant article about Japan-France cooperation on critical mineral supply chains dated April 1, 2026, but this did not mention new semiconductor export controls or technology transfer restrictions targeting China specifically. No evidence found of any G7 nation announcing

22. Wednesday, 1 April 20261 update

    • 00:04Forecast

      ForecastSouth Korea will announce emergency semiconductor export controls or technology transfer restrictions within 7 days as Taiwan Strait tensions with 25% narrow Fearon bargaining range force critical supply chain protection measures

      NEXUS forecast: 11% probability, resolves by 2026-04-08.

23. Tuesday, 24 March 20261 update

    • 12:04Forecast

      ForecastBrazil will announce at least one major defense procurement or military cooperation agreement within 30 days as BRICS realignment accelerates amid US-China trade war Fearon bargaining failure

      NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-04-23.

24. Saturday, 7 March 20261 update

    • 23:22Forecast

      ForecastAt least one G7 nation will announce new semiconductor export controls or technology transfer restrictions targeting China within 30 days, as gray zone Taiwan Strait escalation triggers economic deterrence responses consistent with the Nash equilibrium outcome

      NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-04-06.