Live tracker·Global·Updated
US tariff threats and trade deals, retaliation from trading partners, and export controls.
NewsGlobal trade weathers Iran, Ukraine and Trump's tariffs
Deutsche Welle
Over the past six years, COVID, two wars and Donald Trump's tariffs have shaken world trade. With globalization already stalling, is this a temporary shock or the start of a great reversal?
NewsIndia Unlikely to Ditch Russian Oil Despite Trump's 100% Tariff Threat
OilPrice
India cannot and likely will not replace all the Russian crude oil it is importing despite the threat of 100% tariffs on its products in the United States, according to analysts. Earlier this month,
News'Missed opportunity': US soybean farmers question exclusion from China tariff cuts
SCMP
US soybean farmers have described the exclusion of US soybeans from China's import list under the newly announced Board of Trade mechanism as a "missed opportunity", even as Beijing ramped up purchase
NEXUS forecast: 66% probability, resolves by 2026-10-24.
ForecastThe US will announce new tariffs targeting Chinese goods within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast: 57% probability, resolves by 2026-10-22.
NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.
NEXUS forecast: 49% probability, resolves by 2026-10-21.
NEXUS forecast: 63% probability, resolves by 2026-10-20.
NEXUS forecast: 54% probability, resolves by 2026-10-17.
NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-10-17.
NEXUS forecast: 24% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.
NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-10-13.
ForecastThe United States will announce a new round of tariffs targeting Chinese goods within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast: 27% probability, resolves by 2026-10-13.
NEXUS forecast: 24% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.
NEXUS forecast: 33% probability, resolves by 2026-10-10.
NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.
NEXUS forecast: 36% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 6%). Wire-tier Reuters (Aug 5, 2026, within window): 'China targets US firms and drone exports after FCC, Xinjiang actions' -- confirms in past tense that the US had already taken FCC-related export/technology restrictions and a Xinjiang forced-labor sanctions/blacklist action against China, which trigge
NEXUS forecast: 6% probability, resolves by 2026-08-15.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). Web searches within the prediction window (May 9-23, 2026) found no evidence of South Korea announcing emergency semiconductor export controls or supply chain protection measures. Search results were specifically filtered to the evidence window and returned 0 relevant results for South Korean govern
NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-05-23.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 60%). Limited search results within evidence window (2026-03-24 to 2026-04-23). Found 2 general articles: 'India and a Changing Global Order' (Mar 25) and 'Prabowo-Putin 5-Hour Meeting' (Apr 14, Indonesia-Russia, not Brazil). No specific evidence of Brazil announcing major defense procurement or military
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 11%). Search results show Taiwan Strait tensions were present during the evidence window (April 1 - April 8, 2026) with articles mentioning geopolitical tensions and Trump warnings about Taiwan Strait crisis. However, no specific announcements found of South Korea implementing emergency semiconductor expo
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 60%). Web search found only one relevant article about Japan-France cooperation on critical mineral supply chains dated April 1, 2026, but this did not mention new semiconductor export controls or technology transfer restrictions targeting China specifically. No evidence found of any G7 nation announcing
NEXUS forecast: 11% probability, resolves by 2026-04-08.
NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-04-23.
NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-04-06.
This tracker updates hourly from NEXUS news monitoring, published forecasts and prediction-market prices. Headlines link to their original publishers. NEXUS forecasts are recorded before their outcome and scored when they resolve. How forecasts are made and scored.
Newsweek
NewsFoie gras, live dolphins and toasters: China and US cut reciprocal tariffs on $30bn each of goods
The Guardian
World's biggest economies release lists of products in latest move away from trade war - but no strategic goods are included The US and China have released reciprocal lists of goods worth abo
NewsU.S. and China release reciprocal $30 billion product lists for tariff cuts after Trump-Xi meeting
Washington Times
The United States and China released Monday reciprocal lists of products worth about $30 billion each that will see tariff cuts, from American hair products to Chinese toys, in a deal expected to boos
NewsAs the US midterms approach, Trump's boasts on the economy fall flat with voters
The Guardian
Trump's tariffs and his war against Iran caused prices to rise, but the US president continues to claim it's 'the greatest economy in history'
NewsRepublicans Facing the High Political Cost of Tariffs
National Review
NewsTrump's Tariffs Push Canadian Companies to Look Past American Links - The New York Times
The New York Times