Loading
Live tracker·Global·Updated
US tariff threats and trade deals, retaliation from trading partners, and export controls.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 36%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
The Guardian
Follow the day's news live. Get our breaking news email , free app
NewsChina, EU take a breath after surprise deal brings temporary halt to trade tussle
SCMP
Weeks of high-wire negotiations between China and the EU culminated in a surprise trade deal that will, among other measures, impose strict quotas on Chinese hybrid car exports to the bloc and slash C
NewsHow China and the EU pressed pause on trade war - and what it took to get there
SCMP
Weeks of high-wire negotiations between China and the EU culminated in a surprise trade deal that will, among other measures, impose strict quotas on Chinese hybrid car exports to the bloc and slash C
NewsTariffs, millions in extra costs, Iran war: Trump's policies hammer US firms
SCMP
For Doug Rende, who runs an aluminium product manufacturer in the US state of Ohio, President Donald Trump's tariffs have meant millions of dollars more in annual costs - and recently, the Iran war ha
NewsEU and China strike interim trade deal that could cut Chinese hybrid exports, EU envoy says
Washington Times
The top trade envoys for China and the European Union agreed Friday on a broad initial agreement following two days of talks aimed at calming escalating tensions over trade imbalances, the EU trade co
NewsRussian Oil Flows to India Plunge to 310,000 Bpd
OilPrice
India is reducing its imports of crude oil from Russia, but mostly not because of the U.S. tariff threat for buying Russian oil. Economics have always been driving Indian refiners' purchases, and the
NewsWho Is Going to Pay for Alaska LNG?
OilPrice
Washington's tariff pressure is giving Alaska LNG something its economics have struggled to secure: a potential investor. Discussed for decades, the costly and technically complex project has regained
NewsAfter cordial Xi-Trump summit, could China's US dollar pivot cause tremors?
SCMP
As President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump talked tariffs, agricultural quotas and critical minerals at last month's closely watched summit in Washington, an "elephant in the room" loomed o
NewsHow Trump's Tariff War With Canada Ensnared the Can-Am Spyder - The New York Times
The New York Times
ForecastThe United States will announce a new tariff on a Chinese-manufactured product by November 2, 2026.
NEXUS forecast: 30% probability, resolves by 2026-11-02.
NewsCan Britain really afford to diverge from EU tariffs on Chinese EVs?
SCMP
The European Union's demand that Britain raise tariffs on Chinese cars exposes an awkward truth about post-Brexit trade. Britain might have left the EU, but it cannot easily escape the bloc's industri
The Guardian
President has claimed pipeline project was part of a deal made last year to lower tariffs on imports from South Korea in return for billions of dollars of investments in the US
NewsEU retools Trump trade war tripwire into China shipments surge alarm
SCMP
In April last year, Brussels launched an obscure "import surveillance task force" to track the impact of US President Donald Trump's trade war with China on the EU economy. The bloc was concerned that
NewsChina slaps 55% tariff on Brazilian beef, rebuffs bid to borrow Uruguay's quota
SCMP
China will charge an extra 55 per cent tariff on Brazilian beef from Thursday after Brazil filled its import quota for the year and has not agreed to let Brazilian exporters use the unfilled quota of
NewsCarney accuses U.S. steelmaker of betraying Canadian workers after layoffs tied to Trump tariffs
Washington Times
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney accused the U.S. owner of steelmaker Stelco, a subsidiary of Cleveland-Cliffs, of betraying Canadian workers Tuesday after it announced layoffs it attributed in par
NewsGlobal trade weathers Iran, Ukraine and Trump's tariffs
Deutsche Welle
Over the past six years, COVID, two wars and Donald Trump's tariffs have shaken world trade. With globalization already stalling, is this a temporary shock or the start of a great reversal?
News'Missed opportunity': US soybean farmers question exclusion from China tariff cuts
SCMP
US soybean farmers have described the exclusion of US soybeans from China's import list under the newly announced Board of Trade mechanism as a "missed opportunity", even as Beijing ramped up purchase
NEXUS forecast: 66% probability, resolves by 2026-10-24.
ForecastThe US will announce new tariffs targeting Chinese goods within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast: 57% probability, resolves by 2026-10-22.
NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.
NEXUS forecast: 49% probability, resolves by 2026-10-21.
NEXUS forecast: 63% probability, resolves by 2026-10-20.
NEXUS forecast: 54% probability, resolves by 2026-10-17.
NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-10-17.
NEXUS forecast: 24% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.
NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-10-13.
ForecastThe United States will announce a new round of tariffs targeting Chinese goods within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast: 27% probability, resolves by 2026-10-13.
NEXUS forecast: 24% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.
NEXUS forecast: 33% probability, resolves by 2026-10-10.
NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.
NEXUS forecast: 36% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 6%). Wire-tier Reuters (Aug 5, 2026, within window): 'China targets US firms and drone exports after FCC, Xinjiang actions' -- confirms in past tense that the US had already taken FCC-related export/technology restrictions and a Xinjiang forced-labor sanctions/blacklist action against China, which trigge
NEXUS forecast: 6% probability, resolves by 2026-08-15.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). Web searches within the prediction window (May 9-23, 2026) found no evidence of South Korea announcing emergency semiconductor export controls or supply chain protection measures. Search results were specifically filtered to the evidence window and returned 0 relevant results for South Korean govern
NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-05-23.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 60%). Limited search results within evidence window (2026-03-24 to 2026-04-23). Found 2 general articles: 'India and a Changing Global Order' (Mar 25) and 'Prabowo-Putin 5-Hour Meeting' (Apr 14, Indonesia-Russia, not Brazil). No specific evidence of Brazil announcing major defense procurement or military
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 11%). Search results show Taiwan Strait tensions were present during the evidence window (April 1 - April 8, 2026) with articles mentioning geopolitical tensions and Trump warnings about Taiwan Strait crisis. However, no specific announcements found of South Korea implementing emergency semiconductor expo
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 60%). Web search found only one relevant article about Japan-France cooperation on critical mineral supply chains dated April 1, 2026, but this did not mention new semiconductor export controls or technology transfer restrictions targeting China specifically. No evidence found of any G7 nation announcing
NEXUS forecast: 11% probability, resolves by 2026-04-08.
NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-04-23.
NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-04-06.
This tracker updates hourly from NEXUS news monitoring, published forecasts and prediction-market prices. Headlines link to their original publishers. NEXUS forecasts are recorded before their outcome and scored when they resolve. How forecasts are made and scored.
South China Morning Post
NewsEU 'pulling out all stops' with minerals projects as it tries to avert China trade war
Guardian Economics
Commissioner Stéphane Séjourné says bloc will support 46 strategic projects including lithium and rare earths plants The EU is "pulling out all the stops" to fend off an imminent potential tr
NewsChina agrees to slash EU hybrid car exports in half, putting brake on trade war
SCMP
The European Union and China have "reached an understanding" that will cut Chinese hybrid car shipments to the bloc by "more than a half", in a temporary salve to trade tensions that have threatened t
NewsChina rejects yuan complaints, 'golden week' travel, Canton Fair
SCMP
China's central bank rejected claims that the yuan is undervalued, rebutting a key European argument amid crunch negotiations ahead of a possible trade war. "China has no need or intent to gain compet
NewsDefense Business Brief: 1:1 with Gabe Camarillo; Tariff ripple effects?, and more
Defense One
Peraton wants to bring AI-
NewsMike Rogers breaks with Trump on tariffs in new ad: 'Canada is not our enemy'
Washington Examiner
NewsSeparatists win in Quebec - but does that bring separation from Canada any closer?
The Guardian
Lack of majority for Parti Québécois puts any referendum in doubt, especially amid bruising trade war with Trump The victory of the Parti Québécois in Monday's election in Quebec might seem t
News'Not exactly his favorite senator': Susan Collins distances herself from Trump in Maine debate
The Guardian
Republican challenged by Democrat Troy Jackson in critical Senate race says she opposes Iran war and Canada tariffs Susan Collins, the Republican senator for Maine, pointedly distanced hersel
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 70%). Data-resolved: AAPL, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-22 through 2026-10-06. Target: below 322.03. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 333.63 (2026-10-06).
NewsU.S. Trade Deficit Hits 17-Month High Despite Trump's Tariffs - The New York Times
The New York Times
NewsWhy India is getting serious about ending the Ukraine war
SCMP
India's recent push to become more involved in helping end the Russia-Ukraine war comes as the costs of the conflict continue to mount for New Delhi, amid the threat of US tariffs on major buyers of R
SCMP
China's US$1.2 trillion goods trade surplus last year has focused attention on electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels and industrial overcapacity. Tariffs, anti-subsidy investigations and localisa
NewsUK considering tariffs on Chinese car imports to align with EU, reports say
The Guardian
Move would strengthen Britain's case to be included in new legislation to protect European manufacturing
NewsInflation At The Checkout: The Hidden Political Cost Of Tariffs
Daily Wire
Next month's midterms will be the third straight election cycle where affordability has been the biggest issue for most voters. Given how much Americans rely on cars to meet their transportation needs
NewsUK car industry faces 'difficult trade-off' between Chinese and EU markets
Guardian Economics
Britain under pressure to put tariffs on cheap Chinese vehicle imports ahead of protectionist trade measures Britain's car industry is grappling with a "difficult trade-off" between China and
NPR
Home to both Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic candidate Troy Jackson, Maine's senate race has put rural Aroostook County in the spotlight.
NewsEgg prices have tumbled since Trump returned to office. Here's why
NPR
Agriculture experts say high egg prices were the result of severe avian flu outbreaks, but the Trump administration's tariffs and the war with Iran have also put pressure on farmers.
NewsAfter the US-China tariff deal, will Chinese factories still need Southeast Asia?
SCMP
For years, Chinese manufacturers have viewed Southeast Asia as a way to reduce exposure to higher US duties on goods made in China. But a new round of tariff cuts proposed by Washington and Beijing co
NewsTrump's New Tariffs Face a Familiar Court Challenge - The New York Times
The New York Times
NewsIndia Unlikely to Ditch Russian Oil Despite Trump's 100% Tariff Threat
OilPrice
India cannot and likely will not replace all the Russian crude oil it is importing despite the threat of 100% tariffs on its products in the United States, according to analysts. Earlier this month,
Newsweek
NewsFoie gras, live dolphins and toasters: China and US cut reciprocal tariffs on $30bn each of goods
The Guardian
World's biggest economies release lists of products in latest move away from trade war - but no strategic goods are included The US and China have released reciprocal lists of goods worth abo
NewsU.S. and China release reciprocal $30 billion product lists for tariff cuts after Trump-Xi meeting
Washington Times
The United States and China released Monday reciprocal lists of products worth about $30 billion each that will see tariff cuts, from American hair products to Chinese toys, in a deal expected to boos
NewsAs the US midterms approach, Trump's boasts on the economy fall flat with voters
The Guardian
Trump's tariffs and his war against Iran caused prices to rise, but the US president continues to claim it's 'the greatest economy in history'
NewsRepublicans Facing the High Political Cost of Tariffs
National Review
NewsTrump's Tariffs Push Canadian Companies to Look Past American Links - The New York Times
The New York Times