The United States will announce an increase in tariff rates or new trade restrictions on Chinese goods within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 24% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-11.

US-China Trade War Escalation Bayesian analysis shows a 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure, structural conflict conditions), bearish assessment at 60% confidence, despite the Nash equilibrium suggesting negotiation as most likely near-term posture — the structural collapse argues for continued incremental restriction actions.

Probability: 24%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 11in 12d
Made: Sep 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will announce a new uranium enrichment escalation measure (raising enrichment levels or restricting IAEA inspector access) within 30 days.

geopolitical25%

Israel or Hezbollah/Hamas-aligned forces will conduct a significant military strike or escalation event in the Israel-Lebanon-Gaza theater within the 30-day window surrounding the October 7 anniversary.

geopolitical74%

OPEC+ will announce a continuation of its existing production schedule (no new coordinated output cut) at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

geopolitical33%

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The United States will announce an increase in tariff rates or new trade restrictions on Chinese goods within 30 days.

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