The United States will announce new tariff increases, export controls, or trade restrictions targeting China within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 66% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-24.

US-China Trade War Escalation Bayesian analysis shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, zero stable equilibria), with the market assessment flagging elevated tail risk (bearish, 60% confidence) despite the Nash equilibrium nominally favoring negotiation — the structural collapse in bargaining space favors unilateral action.

Probability: 66%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 24in 25d
Made: Sep 24

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's PLA will conduct a new gray-zone military incursion (naval crossing, air intrusion into Taiwan's ADIZ, or similar coercive maneuver) near Taiwan within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

Kharg Island will remain under Iranian control through September 30, 2026, meaning the Polymarket question 'Will Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30?' resolves NO with near-certainty; probability of Iranian loss of control is assessed at 10%.

geopolitical5%

Iran will announce a new advance in uranium enrichment levels or a formal breach of IAEA monitoring commitments within 30 days

geopolitical51%

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The United States will announce new tariff increases, export controls, or trade restrictions targeting China within 30 days.

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