The US will announce new tariffs targeting Chinese goods within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 57% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-22.

Bayesian US-China Trade War Escalation analysis shows a 0% Fearon bargaining range (structural conflict likely) with bearish market assessment at 60% confidence, despite the standard Nash equilibrium suggesting negotiation. The Bayesian failure signal is weighted over the Nash result per instructions; base rate for policy_action/geopolitical (20%) anchors confidence downward from the raw Bayesian read.

Probability: 57%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 22in 23d
Made: Sep 22

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Pablo Marçal will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

geopolitical5%

The Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without cutting at its next scheduled communication within 30 days, consistent with a hawkish-hold stance.

geopolitical85%

The US Department of Justice or FTC will file, advance, or announce a new antitrust action, ruling, or enforcement step against a major technology company (Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple) within 30 days.

geopolitical60%

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The US will announce new export control measures targeting China's semiconductor sector within 14 days.

geopolitical41%

The US will announce new tariffs targeting Chinese goods within 30 days.

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