The US Department of Justice or FTC will file, advance, or announce a new antitrust action, ruling, or enforcement step against a major technology company (Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 60% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-22.

Bayesian Big Tech Antitrust Showdown equilibrium: 'US pursues breakup; markets go long small-cap competitors' (mixed, 70% confidence), 1 stable Bayesian equilibrium identified.

Probability: 60%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 22in 23d
Made: Sep 22

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without cutting at its next scheduled communication within 30 days, consistent with a hawkish-hold stance.

geopolitical85%

The US will announce new export control measures targeting China's semiconductor sector within 14 days.

geopolitical41%

The US will announce new tariffs targeting Chinese goods within 30 days.

geopolitical57%

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Pablo Marçal will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

geopolitical5%

The US Department of Justice or FTC will file, advance, or announce a new antitrust action, ruling, or enforcement step against a major technology company (Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple) within 30 days.

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