The US will announce new export controls or economic sanctions targeting Chinese semiconductor or technology firms within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-20 at 63% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-20.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium: 'China: Gray zone escalation, US: Economic deterrence' at p=100% within the fragile equilibrium, narrow 25% Fearon bargaining range, coalition stability only 30% with critical fracture risk -- economic deterrence is the modeled US response path, distinct from existing pending PLA-incursion predictions.

Probability: 63%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 20in 4d
Made: Sep 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US-Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident (naval harassment, strike, or mine incident) breaking it.

geopolitical85%MISS

OPEC+ will announce a coordinated production cut at its next ministerial-level decision within 30 days.

geopolitical51%

The US x Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident.

geopolitical85%MISS

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US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?

geopolitical85%EXPIRED

The US will announce new export controls or economic sanctions targeting Chinese semiconductor or technology firms within 30 days.

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