The US-Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident (naval harassment, strike, or mine incident) breaking it.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-20 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Crowd priced at 79% YES on Polymarket, but Bayesian analysis shows Iran Nuclear Fearon bargaining range at 0% (structural conflict conditions) and Strait of Hormuz escalation probability at 67% with iran actor type distribution skewing calculating-but-desperate. Thesis-wide escalation risk score of 80% argues for meaningfully lower confidence than the crowd.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 10 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

OPEC+ will announce a coordinated production cut at its next ministerial-level decision within 30 days.

geopolitical51%

The US will announce new export controls or economic sanctions targeting Chinese semiconductor or technology firms within 30 days.

geopolitical63%

The US x Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident.

geopolitical85%

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US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?

geopolitical85%

The US-Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident (naval harassment, strike, or mine incident) breaking it.

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