The US-Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026, without a confirmed kinetic incident (naval harassment, strike, or mine incident) breaking it.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-20 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.
Crowd priced at 79% YES on Polymarket, but Bayesian analysis shows Iran Nuclear Fearon bargaining range at 0% (structural conflict conditions) and Strait of Hormuz escalation probability at 67% with iran actor type distribution skewing calculating-but-desperate. Thesis-wide escalation risk score of 80% argues for meaningfully lower confidence than the crowd.
- Probability
- 85%
- Timeframe
- 10 days
- Deadline
- Sep 30in 1d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.