Apple (AAPL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as the US-China Trade War Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, bearish) weighs on China-exposed supply chains (target below $322.03, 5% from $338.98 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 70% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-06.

Bayesian US-China Trade War Escalation: Fearon bargaining failure, 0% range, bearish market assessment confidence 60%

Probability

70%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Oct 6in 7d

Made

Sep 22

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.