MISSBrier 0.117

Data-resolved: AAPL moved from 319.97 to 336.13 (5.05%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: below 303.97. Target not reached. Low was 309.90.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongAAPL

Apple (AAPL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $303.97, 5% from $319.97 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 34% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.117.

Derived from the US-China Trade War Bayesian Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structurally conflict-prone, bearish 60% confidence) and confirmed FCC export-control/Xinjiang sanctions triggering Chinese retaliation, exposing Apple's China-dependent supply chain and revenue base.

Probability: 34%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$303.97

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Apple (AAPL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as the US-China Trade War Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, bearish) weighs on China-exposed supply chains (target below $322.03, 5% from $338.98 at creation)

market70%

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Apple (AAPL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $303.97, 5% from $319.97 at creation)

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