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Live tracker·Europe·Updated
Russia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks
The war in Ukraine: front-line developments, drone and missile strikes, and the prospects for a ceasefire.
Live tracker·Europe·Updated
The war in Ukraine: front-line developments, drone and missile strikes, and the prospects for a ceasefire.
NewsBomb by Bomb, the Slow Death of My Hometown in Ukraine
New York Times
It was possible, for a time, to think that Kramatorsk, where I was born and raised, would survive the war mostly unscathed. Not any more.
NewsThe Rescuers Keeping Two Ukrainian 'Fortress Cities' Alive
New York Times
Emergency workers have to move fast after Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine. Another could come at any moment.
The Guardian
Secretary-general warns Russia 'continues its reckless campaign of hostile actions against Nato allies' Rutte begins by recalling a drone shot down in Lithuanian airspace by Nato fig
ResolvedRussia will conduct a confirmed missile or drone strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 80%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 76%). Reuters (wire tier), Sep 8 2026: 'Zelenskiy says US envoys presented decent ideas for peace talks' -- confirms an active negotiation-related development within the window (2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21). Additional corroboration (other-tier but concurring): Anadolu Ajansı and Channels Television both rep
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 47%). Wire-tier sources within window: Reuters (Sep 17, 2026) 'Russia says new US sanctions, if signed by Trump, would make Ukraine peace deal harder'; NYT (Sep 18-19, 2026) 'Trump Wants Putin to End the War. He May Offer Russia Business Deals First' and 'Russia Warns New U.S. Sanctions Law Would Harm Tru
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-25.
NEXUS forecast: 69% probability, resolves by 2026-10-24.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-23.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-20.
NEXUS forecast: 44% probability, resolves by 2026-10-17.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-17.
NEXUS forecast: 74% probability, resolves by 2026-10-16.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-09-29.
NEXUS forecast: 34% probability, resolves by 2026-10-15.
NEXUS forecast: 21% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.
NEXUS forecast: 32% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.
NEXUS forecast: 32% probability, resolves by 2026-10-13.
NEXUS forecast: 18% probability, resolves by 2026-10-13.
NEXUS forecast: 58% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.
NEXUS forecast: 24% probability, resolves by 2026-09-26.
Forecast
NEXUS forecast: 19% probability, resolves by 2026-10-10.
NEXUS forecast: 19% probability, resolves by 2026-10-10.
NEXUS forecast: 55% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.
NEXUS forecast: 21% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.
NEXUS forecast: 23% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
ForecastRussia will conduct a confirmed missile or drone strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
NEXUS forecast: 80% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.
Forecast
NEXUS forecast: 77% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.
NEXUS forecast: 16% probability, resolves by 2026-10-31.
Forecast
NEXUS forecast: 47% probability, resolves by 2026-09-18.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 26%). Reuters (wire tier), 'Russia frees ailing ex-US Marine Robert Gilman from detention' (Tue, 11 Aug 2026), confirms a completed prisoner release/exchange within the evidence window (2026-07-17 to 2026-08-16). Additionally, multiple other-tier outlets (Al Arabiya, Moscow Times, Meduza) reported Russia
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 6%). TTF=F futures: July 20 close 58.74 EUR/MWh (vs reference price cited as 11.27, apparently mismatched units/data error at creation). Over the evidence window, TTF ranged from a low of 56.56 (July 28) to a high of 64.40 (July 24), closing at 59.07 on July 31. Cumulative change from 58.74 to 59.07 = +0
NEXUS forecast: 6% probability, resolves by 2026-08-03.
NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-08-16.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 64%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 10%). TTF data shows current price at 0 with no recent history available from get_market_price. Reference price at creation was €11.27. Web search found limited specific TTF price data within the evidence window. Given the reference price was €11.27 (well below €45) and current data shows 0, there is no e
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 74%). DBA: March 19 close $26.97, April 18 close $26.92, return = -0.19%. SPY: March 19 close $659.80, April 18 close $710.14, return = +7.63%. Relative performance = DBA return - SPY return = -0.19% - 7.63% = -7.82%. DBA underperformed by 7.82%. Actual: -7.82%, Required: +2.5%, -7.82% < 2.5% therefore th
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 54%). Corn futures (ZC=F) traded above $450 per bushel on multiple days within the evidence window. Specific days above $450: March 19 (high $470, close $469.75), March 20 (high $469.25), March 23 (high $473.75), March 24 (high $465.75), March 25 (high $468.5, close $467.25), March 26 (high $468.75, close
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 42%). Wheat futures (ZW=F) never reached $6.50 during the evidence period. Prices were in cents, not dollars: March 11: 588.5 cents, highest point was 625 cents on March 31, April 10 close: 571 cents. Converting to dollars: highest = $6.25/bushel, well below target of $6.50. Required: at least 2 days abov
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 10%). TTF futures price data shows current price of 0 with no historical data available. Reference price at creation was €11.27/MWh. Found one result mentioning natural gas price forecast from April 1, 2026, but no specific daily TTF closing prices above €45/MWh. No evidence of TTF closing above €45 on an
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 33%). RUB/USD quote convention issue: The prediction stated 'weaken beyond 95.00' but current price is 0.012766 (April 9, 2026). This appears to be USD per RUB, not RUB per USD as claimed. During the evidence window (March 9 - April 8), RUB/USD ranged from 0.011611 to 0.012743, showing ruble strengthening
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 72%). USD/RUB price data shows the ruble STRENGTHENED during the prediction window. Highest USD/RUB value was 86.83 on March 19, 2026, meaning 86.83 rubles per dollar. Required: >95 rubles per dollar on at least 2 days. Actual: Maximum 86.83, which is 8.17 points BELOW the 95 threshold. The ruble never we
Resolved as a partial (forecast at 68%). USD/RUB peaked at 86.84 on March 19 but never reached 95.00 during the prediction window (March 19 to April 2). Daily highs: March 19: 86.84, March 20: 86.51, March 21: 83.91, March 22: 83.88, March 23: 84.50, March 24: 82.36, March 25: 81.32, March 26: 82.75, March 27: 82.27, March 28: 81.57, March
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 55%). GDELT unavailable. Web search within evidence window March 19 to April 2, 2026 found only 2 results: EU revenue from Russian assets for Ukraine support (April 1) and EU Industrial Accelerator Act (March 19). Neither describes new defense procurement or military cooperation agreements by specific mem
NEXUS forecast: 10% probability, resolves by 2026-04-15.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 59%). Multiple sources within evidence window confirm European gas storage crisis: EU fears panic buying as gas reserves run low (Politico, March 18), European gas prices jump 28.5% as supply fears deepen (Anadolu, March 9), and Europe facing slow natural gas storage build amid LNG squeeze (Armchair Trade
NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-03-26.
NEXUS forecast: 64% probability, resolves by 2026-04-18.
NEXUS forecast: 36% probability, resolves by 2026-03-25.
NEXUS forecast: 42% probability, resolves by 2026-04-10.
NEXUS forecast: 33% probability, resolves by 2026-04-08.
NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-04-08.
This tracker updates hourly from NEXUS news monitoring, published forecasts and prediction-market prices. Headlines link to their original publishers. NEXUS forecasts are recorded before their outcome and scored when they resolve. How forecasts are made and scored.
Reuters
NewsThe World Is Entering a New Era of Energy Security
OilPrice
The U.S.-Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars are more than regional or military conflicts. They are exposing weaknesses in the global energy and economic system and demonstrating that energy security can no
NewsPutin signs decree adding 15,500 troops to Russian army
SCMP
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Monday boosting the size of the army by 15,500 troops in the fourth such order this year. Putin's order comes as both Russia and Ukraine suffer moun
NewsRussian Drone Strikes Ukraine's Science Academy, Causing Fire in City Center
New York Times
A Russian jet-powered drone hit Ukraine's National Academy of Sciences, the source of almost all of the country's major scientific discoveries.
News'This is terrorism': daytime Russian strike hits science academy in Kyiv
The Guardian
Jet-powered drones are increasingly targeting Ukraine's capital, with medical centre also hit A Russian drone hit the National Academy of Sciences in central Kyiv on Monday, killing at
NewsRussian drones hit Kyiv science academy and hospital - Financial Times
Financial Times
NewsZelenskyy Warns Russia Wants to Widen War Beyond Ukraine
OilPrice
Russian drone strikes killed at least four people in Ukraine overnight and into September 27, including one person in the capital, Kyiv, and three in the southeastern Zaporizhzhya region, Ukrainian of
NewsRussian drones pound civilian areas as Ukraine claims battlefield breakthroughs
Washington Times
Russia's round-the-clock bombardment of targets in Ukraine killed at least six civilians and wounded 53 others, officials said Monday, while Ukraine's army claimed more successes in a recent push on t
NewsSouth Korea demands official apology from Ukraine after Zelenskyy revealed secret POW transfer
Washington Times
Seoul has called for an official apology from Ukraine after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed what it says was supposed to be a secret transfer of two North Korean prisoners of war to South Korea
NewsUkraine airlifts aid to Russian-occupied city - Financial Times
Financial Times
NewsWhat Russians Who Lost Sons in Ukraine Think About the War Now - The New York Times
The New York Times
NewsTheir Sons Are Dying on Battlefields in Ukraine. They Still Back Russia's War.
New York Times
The Russian region of North Ossetia has suffered a heavy toll, yet many accept the Kremlin's line that the fighting must continue until victory is secured.
NewsRussian strikes kill eight, injure dozens across Ukraine
Al Jazeera
NewsUkraine, South Korea relations sour over North Korean POWs
Deutsche Welle
South Korea has accused Ukraine of breaching a confidentiality agreement over the transfer of North Korean prisoners of war - and of denying the deal's existence. Seoul has demanded an apology.
News'Hell on earth': last residents eat weeds to survive in Russian-occupied Oleshky
The Guardian
Ukrainian forces airdrop supplies to city where bodies are left to be eaten by dogs because of deadly risk from drones The phone message sent out of Russian-occupied Oleshky was grimly matter
Fox News
Finnish President Alexander Stubb credits Trump with pushing for Russia-Ukraine war peace and says Finland is fully prepared for any Moscow threat.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-25.
NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.
NEXUS forecast: 69% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.
NEXUS forecast: 76% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.
NEXUS forecast: 16% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
NEXUS forecast: 17% probability, resolves by 2026-10-31.
NEXUS forecast: 14% probability, resolves by 2026-12-31.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 36%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.
NEXUS forecast: 74% probability, resolves by 2026-04-18.
NEXUS forecast: 68% probability, resolves by 2026-04-02.
NEXUS forecast: 10% probability, resolves by 2026-04-18.
NEXUS forecast: 55% probability, resolves by 2026-04-02.
NEXUS forecast: 54% probability, resolves by 2026-04-18.