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Live tracker·Europe·Updated
Russia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks
The war in Ukraine: front-line developments, drone and missile strikes, and the prospects for a ceasefire.
Live tracker·Europe·Updated
The war in Ukraine: front-line developments, drone and missile strikes, and the prospects for a ceasefire.
NPR
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy sits down with NPR to talks about the ongoing war in his country, Pope Leo has lung cancer, the Vatican announced, U.S. ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle resigns.
The Guardian
Zelenskyy says Russia attacked 'infrastructure covered by the ceasefire announced by the American president'
NewsUkrainian soldiers in combat have access to Starlink satellite internet restricted
The Guardian
Outage of terminals managed by Elon Musk's SpaceX comes as Russia launches ballistic missiles at Ukraine without any advance warning from US Ukrainian soldiers in combat have suddenly had the
The Guardian
Prime minister to face MPs at PMQs before hosting Ukraine's president in London While Andy Burnham prepares for PMQs, he may be amused by a peculiar row that has broken out between Ni
NewsRussian strikes kill 6 in Ukraine, knocking out power across Kyiv
SCMP
Heavy overnight Russian strikes killed at least six people in Ukraine and cut power to large parts of the capital Kyiv, authorities said on Wednesday. The attacks on multiple regions came after Presid
OddsPolymarket: "Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?" at 91%
Polymarket
Moved from 86% since the last logged price.
NewsUkraine is littered with landmines on a scale last seen in Vietnam. How can they be removed?
The Guardian
Faced with deadlier threats, demining groups are coming up with new ways of working using drones and AI Crouched over on her hands and knees in a field of weeds, Olena Kabanova is digging int
Resolved as expired (forecast at 77%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
NewsSenators Urge Trump to Reverse Diesel Deal With Putin
New York Times
A bipartisan group of 12 senators called on the president to drop his decision to ease sanctions on Russia's exports of diesel fuel, saying the deal would help Moscow continue the war in Ukraine.
News'These two wars are interlinked': Ukrainians, Saudis face same Iranian-designed drones
Washington Times
The European Union's envoy to the Gulf said Tuesday that the same drone models are hitting Ukraine and Saudi Arabia, after an overnight attack sank a cargo ship off NATO member Bulgaria and Houthi str
NewsTrump Squeezes Ukraine, Again
New York Times
The president's proposed fuel deal with Russia and a one-sided cease-fire plan are putting Kyiv in a tough spot as winter approaches.
NewsTrump insists Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire is real 'because I said they agree'
Washington Examiner
News
This tracker updates hourly from NEXUS news monitoring, published forecasts and prediction-market prices. Headlines link to their original publishers. NEXUS forecasts are recorded before their outcome and scored when they resolve. How forecasts are made and scored.
NewsZelenskyy tells NPR Ukraine wants peace but will hit Russia until it follows ceasefire
NPR
In an interview with NPR, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was informed the U.S. warned it could cut off access to U.S. weapons and intelligence, but that it hasn't happened yet.
NewsUkraine allies in Poland after Starlink sabotage, Trump diesel deal
Deutsche Welle
Germany's Johann Wadephul said hybrid plots like the Starlink fire showed Europe was "in Russia's crosshairs." The UK's Ed Miliband said Trump's Russian diesel deal led to a "very difficult few days"
NewsUkraine and the US: What's next after Trump's diesel deal with Russia?
Deutsche Welle
Donald Trump plans to allow the purchase of Russian diesel, drawing criticism at home and abroad. What is behind the US president's decision and what should Ukraine do next? DW spoke with experts.
NewsZelenskyy says Ukraine received no intelligence from partners about missiles headed to Kyiv
Washington Times
Ukraine received no early warning from its partners about five Russian ballistic missiles that hit civilian infrastructure in the capital of Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday, as tensio
NewsRussia responsible for Starlink sabotage, says Poland - The Kyiv Independent
The Kyiv Independent
NewsTrump Hands Victories to Putin, Who Offers More War in Return
New York Times
Russia has reaped a diesel deal and an increase in U.S. pressure on Ukraine as President Trump's political needs align with his longstanding inclinations toward Russia.
NewsTrump Defends Russian Diesel Deal as Energy Ceasefire Claims Unravel
OilPrice
US President Donald Trump, in the face of sharp criticism from officials in Ukraine, Europe, and even his Republican party, defended his decision to allow Russian diesel exports and insisted an energy
NewsAllies did not warn Kyiv of Russian ballistic missile strikes, says Zelenskyy
The Guardian
Ukrainian president's comments on 'particularly vile' strikes come after US threatened to halt intelligence sharing
NewsZelensky Comment Raises Fear That U.S. Is Cutting Intelligence Sharing
New York Times
The Ukrainian leader said Kyiv had no early warning from its Western partners before a Russian ballistic missile attack. But some such attacks do go undetected.
NewsBulgaria condemns Black Sea drone attacks as Russia's war in Ukraine spills over into Eastern Europe
Deutsche Welle
Bulgaria has seen the second spate of drone attacks on merchant ships off its coast in the past week. Russia has been accused of repeatedly targeting civilian cargo ships in the area.
NewsWhy Zelensky Believes Drone Strikes Crippled Russia's Massive Online Smear Machine
Daily Wire
Ukraine just took the fight to Russia's servers, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes its attack knocked the Kremlin's online smear operation for a loop. Over four days, Ukrainian drone
OddsPolymarket: "Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?" at 86%
Polymarket
Moved from 78% since the last logged price.
NewsU.K. and Europe Recoil From Trump's Diesel Deal With Putin
New York Times
Shocked by the U.S. agreement with Russia, which Ukraine has called "a gift" to President Putin, officials in Europe have coalesced around a cautious diplomatic message.
NewsThey Came to Russia for Work. Now They Are Under Fire.
New York Times
Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and warehouses have led to casualties among the foreigners easing Russia's labor shortage.
The Guardian
Ukraine's president says his country has halted strikes on Russian oil refineries for two days after Trump's ceasefire announcement On frozen Russian assets, Poland's Sikorski says th
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
OddsPolymarket: "Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?" at 78%
Polymarket
Moved from 72% since the last logged price.
OddsPolymarket: "Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?" at 72%
Polymarket
Moved from 56% since the last logged price.
OddsPolymarket: "Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?" at 56%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsFrench Navy intercepts Russian shadow fleet tanker in Indian Ocean - The Kyiv Independent
The Kyiv Independent
NewsNATO Details Plan to Shield Ukraine's European Allies From Russia - The New York Times
The New York Times
NewsEnergy prices rise after Trump's 'energy ceasefire' fails to move Russia or Ukraine
NBC News
Oil and gas prices rose Monday after an "energy ceasefire" announced by President Donald Trump Sunday failed to gain any traction.
NewsAfter Russian Diesel Deal, Trump Faces New Crisis Over Ukraine
New York Times
President Trump's surprise decision to suspend sanctions on Russian diesel fuel stunned Ukrainian and European officials, who were meeting with U.S. envoys at an exclusive golf club near Miami.
NewsNATO Details Plan to Shield Ukraine's European Allies from Russia
New York Times
With the Russians intensifying sabotage, arson and cyberattacks against European nations supporting Ukraine, NATO divulged a blueprint, in case of war, to deter the Kremlin.
NewsEuropean Natural Gas Prices Headed for Multi-Year Highs
OilPrice
Europe's main natural gas price benchmark is headed for multi-year highs despite the "energy ceasefire" reported between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend and improving Strait of Hormuz energy flows
NewsTrump Gives Putin a Hand in Russia's Economic War With Ukraine
New York Times
President Trump is moving to buy Russian diesel while also pressuring Ukraine to halt attacks on refineries, a lifeblood of Moscow's war machine.
NewsRussian military takes out more Ukrainian data centers - Data Center Dynamics
Data Center Dynamics
NewsZelenskyy accuses Putin of defying Trump's ceasefire push, sends pointed message to White House
Fox News
Volodymyr Zelenskyy accuses Vladimir Putin of attacking Ukraine's gas infrastructure hours after Trump announced an immediate energy ceasefire.
NewsRussia still hitting Ukrainian energy sites despite Trump claim of ceasefire, Zelensky says
Washington Examiner
NewsZelenskyy tells Warsaw forum Russian drones defied Trump's truce: 'Putin does not read Truth Social'
Washington Times
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Europe's main eastern-flank security gathering Monday that Kyiv will honor President Trump's surprise "energy ceasefire" if Moscow does. But Russian drones
NewsUkraine: Zelenskyy accuses Russia of ceasefire violations
Deutsche Welle
Less than 24 hours after Donald Trump announced an "energy ceasefire," Ukraine reported Russian strikes on the northeastern city of Kharkiv. The Kremlin says it would only consider a one-day ceasefire
NewsUkraine says Russia launched strikes hours after Donald Trump announced an 'energy ceasefire'
Deutsche Welle
Less than 24 hours after Donald Trump announced an "energy ceasefire," Ukraine reported Russian strikes on the northeastern city of Kharkiv. The Kremlin says it would only consider a one-day ceasefire
NewsZelenskyy blindsided after Trump announces 'energy ceasefire' in Ukraine war | First Thing
The Guardian
Ukrainian president says the deal is 'news to me' and that Russia is still attacking energy infrastructure. Plus, investigation into continuing mystery of Havana syndrome Good morning. The Uk
NewsOil Stuck Between Middle East Escalation and Russia-Ukraine Energy Truce
OilPrice
Oil prices traded slightly lower in the early morning in Europe on Monday as U.S. President Trump's announcement of an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine offset this weekend's escalation in
NewsZelenskyy vows to retaliate if Russian strikes on Ukraine's power grid continue
The Guardian
Ukrainian president says at Warsaw summit Trump's 'energy ceasefire' post, as Kyiv struck by Russian drones, 'surprised' him
NewsZelenskyy says Russia strikes energy facilities despite Trump claim of an energy ceasefire
Washington Times
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday that Russia has continued to strike Ukraine's energy facilities even after U.S. President Trump said a day earlier that the warring countries had ag
NewsExclusive: Finland pushes to all but eliminate Russian travel in EU - The Kyiv Independent
The Kyiv Independent
NewsRussian Film Aims to Rewrite History of Deadly Theater Bombing in Ukraine
New York Times
A documentary claims that Ukraine, not Russia, attacked the drama theater in Mariupol, where hundreds of civilians died.
NewsUkraine says Russia violated Trump's 'energy ceasefire' - Europe live
The Guardian
Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Kyiv power plant among the facilities hit after US president claims 'energy ceasefire', while Kremlin yet to confirm any deal
NewsTrump says Russia and Ukraine agree to an 'energy ceasefire'
NPR
President Trump said Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an "energy ceasefire," but he offered no details on it and Kyiv reported attacks by Moscow on energy sites after his statement.
NewsTrump's Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire May Only Cover Oil Refineries
OilPrice
President Trump's announcement of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine appears to be considerably narrower than initially suggested, with a White House official telling Axios that the propos
Fox News
Donald Trump's energy ceasefire could hand Vladimir Putin fresh revenue to fuel Russia's war in Ukraine, former NATO commander Breedlove warns.
NewsPutin has already broken Trump's 'energy ceasefire' with attack on power plant, says Zelenskyy
Sky News
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Russia of striking a Ukrainian power plant and energy facilities after Donald Trump claimed an "energy ceasefire" was in place.
NewsZelenskyy welcomes US-announced energy ceasefire
Al Jazeera
OddsPolymarket: "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?" at 5%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
Deutsche Welle
Russia has announced a battalion consisting of Ukrainian "volunteers." But veterans and former prisoners of war share very different accounts.
NewsTrump announces partial ceasefire in Ukraine war as Zelenskyy says deal is 'news to me'
The Guardian
Ukrainian president earlier rejected US call for Kyiv to stop bombing oil refineries, saying Moscow must first end attacks on energy infrastructure
ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
NewsTrump says Kyiv, Moscow agree to stop attacking each other's energy facilities
Washington Times
President Trump announced Sunday that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to halt attacks on each other's energy infrastructure.
NewsZelenskyy rejects Trump claim of Ukraine and Russia 'energy ceasefire' - live updates
The Guardian
Ukraine's president reportedly says Kyiv would accept a deal if Moscow does after US president posts announcement with no detail on social media
NewsTrump says Russia, Ukraine agree to 'energy ceasefire'
SCMP
US President Donald Trump said in a brief statement on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to halt strikes on each other's energy infrastructure, prompting surprise from Ukraine's leader, who sa
NewsTrump claims Russia and Ukraine agree to energy ceasefire, but Zelenskyy says this is 'news for me'
NBC News
President Donald Trump claimed Sunday that Ukraine and Russia have agreed to an "energy ceasefire" as part of the ongoing conflict.
NewsZelensky to Trump: Ukraine will hold elections if Putin agrees to 60-day ceasefire
Washington Examiner
NewsTrump announces 'energy ceasefire' between Russia and Ukraine
Deutsche Welle
US President Donald Trump says both sides have agreed to stop targeting oil refineries, power plants and other energy infrastructure immediately.
NewsTrump claims Russia and Ukraine agreed to 'energy ceasefire'
Deutsche Welle
US President Donald Trump says both sides have agreed to stop targeting oil refineries, power plants and other energy infrastructure immediately.
NewsTrump announces immediate 'energy ceasefire' between Russia and Ukraine
Washington Examiner
NewsHouthi attack on Riyadh airport forces swift rethink of Trump's new strategy
The Guardian
US president's plan to park the wars in Iran and Yemen, while blaming Ukraine for diesel prices, looks unsustainable The reckless missile attack on King Khalid international airport in Riyadh
NewsUkraine shrugs off Trump call to ditch Zelensky for energy strikes
New York Times
President Trump lashed out at President Volodymyr Zelensky for striking Russian oil refineries. Mr. Zelensky said he'll stop - if Russia does too.
NewsBritain stands behind Zelenskyy, says Streeting after Trump's call for new leader in Ukraine
The Guardian
Defence secretary backs Ukrainian president and says priority is to maintain western unity over Russia conflict Britain stands behind Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the defence secretary has said, afte
NewsGermany rejects Trump demand, 'fully supports' Zelenskyy
Deutsche Welle
Germany's foreign minister has said Berlin is behind Ukraine's president and will keep pressuring Russia to end its war. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank's CEO warned that political extremism is spooking inve
NewsA Russian Spy's Lone Regret: 'I Got Caught'
New York Times
Though born in Ukraine, Alexsander supports the Russian cause. He wishes he had deleted one photo from his phone.
Deutsche Welle
Georgia became a hub for surrogate pregnancies after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. DW spoke with parents, and those who wanted to become parents, about the hidden costs of a booming
NewsSurrogacy in Georgia is booming, but at what cost?
Deutsche Welle
Georgia became a hub for surrogate pregnancies after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. DW spoke with parents, and those who wanted to become parents, about the hidden costs of a booming
Deutsche Welle
Russia has announced a battalion consisting of Ukrainian "volunteers." But veterans and former prisoners of war share very different accounts.
NewsWho are the Ukrainian 'volunteers' under Russian command?
Deutsche Welle
Russia has announced a battalion consisting of Ukrainian "volunteers." But veterans and former prisoners of war share very different accounts.
SCMP
US President Donald Trump has called for Ukraine to replace President Volodymyr Zelensky, accusing him of rejecting multiple opportunities to end the war with Russia. "I think it's time for Ukraine to
NewsTrump slams Zelenskyy, says Ukraine should elect new president
Deutsche Welle
President Trump has criticized Volodymyr Zelenskyy for not making a deal with Russia to end the Ukraine war. He has also warned Kyiv against targeting Russian oil refineries.
NewsUkraine hit by deadly Russian strikes as 'thanks' for Trump diesel deal, Zelenskyy says
The Guardian
Ukrainian president says money from fuel sales will intensify war as European leaders reiterate support for Kyiv Russia launched deadly strikes on civilians in Ukraine as "thanks" for a deal
NewsRussian attacks kill 17 in Ukraine after Trump strikes diesel deal with Putin
Washington Times
Russian strikes killed at least 17 people in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, Ukrainian officials said Saturday, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a deal to buy Russian diesel that Kyiv
NewsGermany sticks to Russia sanctions after Trump diesel deal
Deutsche Welle
After Washington announced a sanctions pause on Russian diesel, Germany has said it remains committed to pressuring Moscow and supporting Ukraine. More on DW.
NewsRussian attacks kill 15 in Ukraine after Trump strikes diesel deal with Putin
SCMP
Russian strikes killed at least 15 people in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, Ukrainian officials said on Saturday, a day after US President Donald Trump announced a deal to buy Russian diesel that Kyiv
NewsUkraine Peace Talks Sputter After Trump and Putin Strike Fuel Deal
New York Times
Hours after President Trump said the United States would buy Russian diesel, the Kremlin said there would be no immediate resumption of discussions to end the war.
NewsLoud explosions heard in Kyiv as city comes under daytime missile attack - The Kyiv Independent
The Kyiv Independent
NewsAustralia says it won't buy Russian fuel despite Trump's diesel agreement
SCMP
Australia has no need to buy fuel from Russia and said that purchases from there would remain barred so that the country did not benefit from the invasion of Ukraine. "We don't need or want Russian fu
NewsZelensky bashes Trump over diesel deal with Russia
Washington Examiner