Russia and Ukraine will hold a new confirmed round of formal peace or ceasefire negotiations (direct or mediated) within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 69% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-12.
Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame model shows a 50% sufficient bargaining range with 91% probability on the equilibrium 'Russia negotiates from strength, US pushes negotiated settlement' (bullish, 78% confidence) — the most stable equilibrium of any Bayesian scenario provided.
- Probability
- 69%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 12in 13d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.