Russia and Ukraine will hold a new confirmed round of formal peace or ceasefire negotiations (direct or mediated) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 69% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-12.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame model shows a 50% sufficient bargaining range with 91% probability on the equilibrium 'Russia negotiates from strength, US pushes negotiated settlement' (bullish, 78% confidence) — the most stable equilibrium of any Bayesian scenario provided.

Probability: 69%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 12in 13d
Made: Sep 12

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

OPEC+ will announce a continuation of its existing production schedule (no new coordinated output cut) at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

geopolitical33%

Israel or Hezbollah/Hamas-aligned forces will conduct a significant military strike or escalation event in the Israel-Lebanon-Gaza theater within the 30-day window surrounding the October 7 anniversary.

geopolitical74%

Saudi Arabia will announce an additional voluntary oil production cut beyond its current OPEC+ quota within 30 days.

geopolitical19%

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Russia and Ukraine will hold a new confirmed round of formal peace or ceasefire negotiations (direct or mediated) within 30 days.

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