Russia and Ukraine will conduct a confirmed prisoner exchange or announce a temporary humanitarian corridor/local ceasefire arrangement within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-14 at 32% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-14.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame analysis shows a sufficient 50% bargaining range and a stable equilibrium (russia: Negotiate from strength, us: Push negotiated settlement, p=91%, bullish, 78% confidence), supporting incremental de-escalation steps short of full settlement.

Probability: 32%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 142d ago
Made: Sep 14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran's IRGC or an Iran-aligned proxy force will conduct a new confirmed missile, drone, or naval strike against a US military asset, base, or allied vessel in the Middle East within 14 days.

geopolitical61%EXPIRED

The Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law by January 1, 2027, resolving the Polymarket question 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?' as YES.

geopolitical30%

OPEC+ will announce a new production cut at or ahead of its next ministerial meeting within 30 days.

geopolitical26%

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Russia and Ukraine will conduct a confirmed prisoner exchange or announce a temporary humanitarian corridor/local ceasefire arrangement within 30 days.

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