The Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law by January 1, 2027, resolving the Polymarket question 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?' as YES.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-14 at 30% probability. Pending, resolves by 2027-01-01.

Bayesian Crypto Regulatory Clarity equilibrium identifies 'US chooses Comprehensive legislation; markets chooses Institutional accumulation' as the dominant bullish outcome with 2 stable equilibria and 70% confidence, materially above the crowd's 30% pricing.

Probability: 30%
Timeframe: 90 days
Deadline: Jan 1in 94d
Made: Sep 14

Price Target$3,633

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Vladimir Putin will no longer serve as President of Russia by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

geopolitical5%

China will conduct a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?' as YES

geopolitical5%

United Russia (ER) will be confirmed as gaining the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, resolving the Polymarket market YES, with probability exceeding the current 76% crowd price given sustained Kremlin consolidation of political control.

geopolitical51%

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The Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law by January 1, 2027, resolving the Polymarket question 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?' as YES.

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